No Deal Brexit advances closer tonight with ERG amendments victory
Prime Minister's Chequers Deal is all but dead as Parliament finds itself locked on Brexit
Summary of this evening
I'll try and explain tonight quickly. Basically, the ERG group within the Tory Party put forward four amendments which basically makes the Chequers Deal impossible from a legal standpoint and binds the government. Today, government whips decided to back the ERG (effectively admitting defeat) and all four amendments passed this evening in what has been a poisonous sitting as the process turns ever more toxic.
As a consequence, the 'backstop' agreed between the UK and EU (which I said at the time was a disgrace) that would keep Northern Ireland in the EU Customs Union in the event of no customs solution being found, is now finished. In that sense, progress on negotiations is now reversed to back before December. This means that Ulster can now *not* be separated from the rest of the kingdom in terms of customs. A superb victory for the DUP and eurosceptics.
So, what now and why is No Deal now looming ever closer?
As a consequence, ultra-remainer Tory MPs are now saying they will not back the PMs Chequers agreement - effectively signalling that they know it is also dead in the water. It also means that at this point, Parliament is effectively paralysed with no parliamentary majority for any outcome in the negotiations. It really is hard to see a way forward out of this as even a General Election would not solve anything, indeed on recent polling would make things worse.
That now means with Parliament deadlocked, the EU's red line of the Ireland backstop crossed out - of which the EU will not negotiate unless it is there, we're heading towards No Deal on the 29th March 2019.
My own thoughts
I had always advocated that we come to a deal with the EU as I am quite pragmatic and that things should be done amicably. But as of the past two weeks, my view has changed. Given the constant blocking/attempts to overturn what we voted for by ultra remainers in Parliament as well as the EU demanding unacceptable terms and the Civil Service conspiring against the people, I now favour No Deal. Initially I was even prepared to swallow the (bad) transitional arrangement in the event we reached our final destination with a final deal, but ultra remainers simply will not compromise and even that transition is now in tatters thanks to their work.
I am going to toot my own horn here and say that when Article 50 was first activated, many on my side said not to as A50 gave the EU the upper hand in that it is a irrevocable countdown. I said at the time however that this could work in our favour in the end as, if the whole process were to grind to a halt - as it now has - then Britain's departure would still happen as a legal fact no matter what. Yet again some good foresight on my part! 8D
Roll on the 29th March 2019 when our departure, in No Deal territory, will be total and complete.
Tweets from this evening
This seems to prove that Parliament could vote for a no-deal Brexit.
— David Henig 🇺🇦 (@DavidHenigUK) July 16, 2018
I have stayed optimistic until now about a deal being reached, but for the first time I now believe no deal to be the most likely outcome. https://t.co/3HgtsPherfTories win ERG amdmt vote by majority of 3. What does todya mean?
— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 16, 2018
That Tory remain rebels struggling to prove they can combine with opposition and defeat government to force softer brexit. ERG proved earlier today they can force government to change course for a harder brexitSky Sources: The Government has accepted all four European Research Group amendments to the Trade Bill
— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) July 16, 2018We are witnessing the Tory party tear itself apart over #Brexit right now as Leave-supporting Conservative MPs tear into Remain-backing Anna Soubry over trade with the EU after Brexit in the House of Commons. It is brutal.
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) July 16, 2018Wow! Total victory for European Research Group whipping operation run by @SteveBakerHW. Backbench Brexiteers are now running a 'party within a party': https://t.co/0sja8zwqJx https://t.co/KYyQOWu1dt
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) July 16, 2018Anna Soubry says that in "private conversations" Tory MPs "have said that the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs will be worth it to regain our country's sovereignty". Helluva claim, that.
— Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) July 16, 2018Let me see if I’ve understood the latest Brexit manoeuvring. @Jacob_Rees_Mogg & chums tabled amendments designed to kill PM’s Chequers Plan. PM accepts them as ‘consistent’ with Plan. So @Anna_Soubry & Tory Remainers now rebelling instead. Simples! #Motherofallparliaments
— Nick Robinson (@bbcnickrobinson) July 16, 2018And a picture tells a thousand words - effective ERG Brexiter whip recently resigned Brexit minister Steve Baker confers with the Labour MPs who brought victory - Field and Hoey pic.twitter.com/ggZ2ozKtZQ
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) July 16, 2018
Thoughts?
