Two pieces tonight, one by ITV's Robert Peston and another, very detailed, in the Huffington Post.
Theresa May is now seriously contemplating a no-deal Brexit. Here's the story of why:https://t.co/WFDKKd60Ql
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019TLDR:
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019
If you're a Remainer, be afraid, be very afraid.
If you're a 'clean Brexit' Leaver, you'll be delighted.
The PM is being swayed by internal polls/focus groups showing she's more popular when she flags no-deal.Imagine you are in the Prime Minister's position. Your two choices and probable consequences are;Why a no-deal Brexit is likely - ITV News https://t.co/UzJyqUY3xT
— Robert Peston (@Peston) February 11, 2019
Option 1 - Push through the existing Withdrawal Agreement by watering it down with Labour support...
- Would detonate the Conservative Party, both in Parliament and out in the country. A formal split.
- The DUP would immediately withdraw their Confidence + Supply meaning the government would collapse within days.
- You'd be facing the very real certainty of a far-left Corbyn government as the Tory Party collapse and splits.
- Huge constitutional problems down the road in regards to Northern Ireland.
Option 2 - If the EU does not budge on the Backstop, accept and go for a No Deal...
- Face the unknown(?) consequences of No Deal.
- Ability to blame any consequences on the European Union and Parliament/Opposition, aka "I tried"
- Tory Party largely holds together with exception of maybe less than 5 already-disloyal Remainers jumping.
- Continue in government with the DUP until 2022.
- Endear yourself to the Tory right to serve out your term until 2022.
This has been my calculation for a while, what do you think will happen? No Deal, her Deal? Other?
45 days left.
