Boris "days away" from launching leadership bid as Tories descend into civil war

There has been much speculation over this, with some suggesting he and the ERG will wait until October/November - but the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Tom Watson MP (obviously well connected) suggests that this week will be the week. My own inkling is that it will happen sooner rather than later, as they should understand they cannot leave it too late before Christmas to make a move. It literally - and especially in regards to Boris - has to be now or never.

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Originally Posted by Tom Watson MP Diary

Word has reached me from the Commons' tea room that Boris Johnson is about to go public with a full-frontal leadership bid to topple Theresa May and install himself in Downing Street.

Johnson, enabled by Tory election mastermind and new sidekick Lynton Crosby, has mapped out a timeline to power which will torpedo the PM's Chequers plan for Brexit.

Having scanned the Trump playbook for inspiration (see letterbox attack on Muslim women), Johnson cleared the decks on his personal life after his marriage break-up story appeared in The Sun on Friday.

I am told that Johnson's MP backers are now compiling the requisite 48 names required to send to the backbench 1922 Committee to trigger a no confidence vote in Mrs May. One source even says this will happen on Monday.

Look out for Johnson's Monday column in the Telegraph (invoice £5,000 a time) in which many of his colleagues expect him to fire the gun.

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Both main parties have completely broken down as viable entities. The only thing holding them together is FPTP and vestiges of tribal loyalty. It's surely not sustainable.

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) September 9, 2018

Don’t underestimate the vitriol that’ll be directed towards Boris today He delivered the leave vote, remainers and wannabe future PMs hate him. If he becomes leader (and PM) he’ll deliver a clean and prosperous #Brexit. They are terrified of his popular appeal #BackBoris #Brexit

— Rt Hon Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) September 9, 2018

This is the guy who flew to Chicago at public expense to tell us that Brexit was a "tantrum" by the "working classes (sic)". Pompous doesn't really do it justice. https://t.co/3idy1hCCyK

— Stewart Jackson 🇮🇱🇬🇧🇺🇦 (@BrexitStewart) September 9, 2018

Meanwhile in the ongoing civil war over Brexit, Chequers seems pretty much dead as both Leave and Remain MPs in the party have come out against it. A new group has also emerged, with Nigel Farage and David Davis heading it together - along with a fusion of Tory MPs and Ukip MEPs. The alliance isn't even pretend anymore as CCHQ loses control over every flank of the party.

David Davis' preferred Brexit plan might be resurrected, reports Robert Peston:https://t.co/4ucbImCWwY

— Coffee House (@SpecCoffeeHouse) September 4, 2018

Boris' bet must now be to throw the dice, win a leadership election and resurrect the Canada++ FTA option which was originally May's plan and which the EU has said quite plainly it will agree to. Take it to the Commons in November, and dare it to be voted down in favour of a WTO leave.

Time for some leadership on this, as we now have exactly 201 days to go.

Thoughts?

still waiting for rees mogg to condem his adultery

he won't win

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

still waiting for rees mogg to condem his adultery

he won't win

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If Boris gets on the members ballot he will win. His big problem is getting on the final ballot, he's not as popular amongst the parliamentary party as he is with the grassroots (think Corbyn). That said, if a lot of candidates stand then that would increase his chances of making it.

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. @BorisJohnson stretches his lead at the top of the table. https://t.co/bHNsd5hS6m

— ConservativeHome (@ConHome) September 6, 2018

“Are there more people in the stop Boris camp or help Boris camp?” #newsnight | @katyballs pic.twitter.com/tlGQJrG75F

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) September 7, 2018

The reaction of the Tory establishment towards the prospect of Boris yesterday and today reminds me strongly of the reaction of the Republican establishment towards Trump when he was first running in the primaries. It only helped him. And given Steve Bannon has been over and had discussions with Boris, we could see the same playbook play out in the coming weeks.

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

If Boris gets on the members ballot he will win. His big problem is getting on the final ballot, he's not as popular amongst the parliamentary party as he is with the grassroots (think Corbyn). That said, if a lot of candidates stand then that would increase his chances of making it.

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lol comparing Corbyn to Boris

unrelated but I've noticed you like to use peoples full names a lot like with Tony Blair but you never seemed to call Boris by his... hmm

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Our survey. Next Tory Leader. @BorisJohnson stretches his lead at the top of the table. https://t.co/bHNsd5hS6m

— ConservativeHome (@ConHome) September 6, 2018

“Are there more people in the stop Boris camp or help Boris camp?” #newsnight | @katyballs pic.twitter.com/tlGQJrG75F

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) September 7, 2018

The reaction of the Tory establishment towards the prospect of Boris yesterday and today reminds me strongly of the reaction of the Republican establishment towards Trump when he was first running in the primaries. It only helped him. And given Steve Bannon has been over and had discussions with Boris, we could see the same playbook play out in the coming weeks.

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The difference between Trump and Boris is their political history.

besides we had a tory leadership election in 2016 and there was a clear majority, stop undermining the will of the people
:)

I can see him being the next PM but part of me is wondering is he really gonna want to do it NOW? Because let’s be honest, whatever kind of Brexit we get, the sitting PM is going to be blamed for it and get a lot of negativity. I always thought May would bow out in May and trigger a leadership election then.

@lawrawrrr;

I read this morning that they're split over what to do. Half of them want to get out of the EU first and then replace the PM and with her replace her Chequers plan during the transition period, the other half want to remove her and her plan right now. Some are calculating that they don't want to risk a constitutional crisis and the potential loss of Brexit until we're out of the exit door.

I'm pretty relaxed because at the end of the day once we've passed 29th March 2019 we can always change the future relationship via treaty.


As of today also, only 200 days to go until we leave.

Storm clouds still surround the Prime Minister...

Tory Brexiters of the European Research Group have tonight been openly plotting a coup against @theresa_may https://t.co/3cg1dCXt5t

— Robert Peston (@Peston) September 11, 2018

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Originally Posted by Robert Peston

I am just going to let this speak for itself. It’s a slightly edited but verbatim account of tonight’s weekly meeting of the Brexiter European Research Group faction of the Conservative Party.

It requires no additional comment from me - other than that I have multiple sources vouching for its veracity.

“We've just had an ERG mass meeting, 50 odd MPs present, where virtually the only topic of conversation for 40/50 mins was: how best do we get rid of her? What's the best way to use our letters?

Comments included: ‘Everyone I know says she has to go’, ‘she's a disaster’, ‘this can't go on’.

You might think that this is usual far for us, but it's not! Not in the mass weekly meeting, never in what's basically a public forum.

The truly amazing thing was they spoke about it so openly, in such an unabashed way, even though they could see the Whips sneak sitting there.

Really, really detailed discussion of the mechanics of how best you game the leadership election rules. And zero dissent.

No one, in a room of fifty Tory MPs even raised a squeak of objection. Not even a murmured pretence as good form. Nor did anyone preface their remarks with any 'sadly I've concluded formulae'.

We were in the Thatcher Room to add piquancy”.

And here’s more:

“It was truly mind blowing. You felt the ground opening up under your feet. The most amazing thing was that no one even bothered to mime a pretence of regret”.

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Sounds to me like this is an ultimatum to the PM tonight.

NEW: @ABridgen tells us that Gavin Barwell has promised to give Theresa May a "full appraisal" of what MPs thought of her after tonight's dinner (she hasn't been present). Asked if there'll be a coup, he says "wait and see." pic.twitter.com/IxLJyqYf7y

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) September 11, 2018

BREAKING: Tonight's Downing St dinner has proven perilous for the PM. John Baron leaves telling us:
"We were discussing leadership issues."
"Which leadership issues?"
"You guess!"
Other MPs dropping major hints to us they've told the PM to chuck Chequers or they'll chuck her. pic.twitter.com/znHxOzlnYe

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) September 11, 2018

https://media1.tenor.com/images/5677...itemid=8688468

Fantastic by JHB tonight on QT, especially at the end.

MUST WATCH | Fantastic defence of Brexit from @JuliaHB1 on #BBCQT: "There isn't a majority in the House of Commons - I don't care! They asked us the question, we gave the answer and we want the Brexit that we were promised. If Theresa May can't deliver it, she should go!" 👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/fpnVRfBXU1

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) September 13, 2018

UK, Survation poll:

Preferred Brexit deal:

"Canada style": 36%
No Deal: 19%
Customs Union: 19%
"Norway style": 15%
Chequers Agreement: 9%

Field work: 07/09/18
Sample size: 1,039

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 12, 2018

Chequers needs to be dumped and we need a CETA aka Canadia++ FTA.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...xit%201-01.jpg

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ould-you-vote/