Managed No-Deal preparations stepped up: Chancellor to release £2bn for Govt Dept's

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

There's no point arguing over what my friend said, either believe me or don't.

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I said a lot more than that

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I was always in favour of Article 50 but here's two instances now regarding aviation and customs checks, with No Deal seemingly the result, where the warnings of "cliff edge" and "chaos" are just nonsense peddled by people who are desperate to make us all vote again.

Here's my next prediction, in the face of No Deal we'll quickly come to similar mini-agreements on tariffs, residency and so on.

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but how exactly is making arrangements a no deal
it is a deal

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Do you agree with me that No Deal, if managed now, can work out fine?

And secondly that it is a preferable outcome to the PM's Deal, which would trap us in a backstop and cost £39bn?

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no I think a lot of people are going to suffer and in some cases die
a lot of people are struggling as is, even if we manage better trade deals in x years times a lot of people can't exactly sit around and wait

the sad thing is people will get angry at the results of this but somehow it will all be the EUs fault...

but it's fine because you'll be in spain and not feel the effects
unless spain decide to be harsh on the now non eu citizens most of which didn't even get a say despite the potential for their entire life been uprooted
but thats fine
its all fine, at the very least their kids can get dual citizenship like nigel farages kids :)

Some more news tweets below. And guys, we've just this second reached...

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ingdom.svg.png 100 DAYS UNTIL INDEPENDENCE https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ingdom.svg.png

Downing Street confirms Theresa May is prepared to take UK out with No Deal. This is a political choice by May not to rule it out.

— Oliver King (@oliverjamesking) December 17, 2018

Cabinet source tells me there is ‘technically’ no way No Deal can be blocked by MPs if govt doesn’t lay any legislation between now & then to allow MPs to table amendment. Politically however, well that’s a whole different matter https://t.co/b7sn4BiwMh

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) December 18, 2018

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

but how exactly is making arrangements a no deal
it is a deal

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Because there's no underlying framework and we're out on WTO terms. Yes, loose ends are tied up so a series of "mini-deals" are what will/is happening. It was obvious that in the event of No Deal, this would always happen. It's not like we are at war, is it?

The collapse of the Soviet Union resulted in quick agreements tying up loose ends between the newly independent states and USSR (Russia).

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

no I think a lot of people are going to suffer and in some cases die
a lot of people are struggling as is, even if we manage better trade deals in x years times a lot of people can't exactly sit around and wait

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Oh now we've gotten onto predictions of Brexit deaths. Hysterical nonsense.

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

the sad thing is people will get angry at the results of this but somehow it will all be the EUs fault...

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Had the EU not demanded to lock us into a backstop that it would use (as it said it would) to extract future concessions out of us on Gibraltar and our fishing waters, then maybe a deal could have been reached. But instead, our "friends" in Brussels behaved as they have always behaved and took our weakling politicians to the cleaners for every penny they can squeeze out of this country.

Although thanks to Gina Miller - we can now reject this in Parliament and just leave via the No Deal default.

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

but it's fine because you'll be in spain and not feel the effects
unless spain decide to be harsh on the now non eu citizens most of which didn't even get a say despite the potential for their entire life been uprooted
but thats fine
its all fine, at the very least their kids can get dual citizenship like nigel farages kids :)

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I don't vote based on what is best for me, but what is best for my country.

I am not in the slightest bit concerned I will have to leave Spain. That said, even if I *knew* I would have to leave as a result I would absolutely be for it because this is more important than me. My uncle, who works for an aerospace company, was warned by the company during the referendum that a Leave vote would result in the company laying people off - he didn't believe it and nor did the majority of staff, and they were right as it turned out to be complete horseshit, but he said if it did then he would *still* vote to Leave for the good of the country.

I believe there will be no sacrifice, but even if there were a material sacrifice - I would happily pay it for independence and democracy.

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Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:-

@lawrawrrr;

The remarkable thing is, the money already spent on this and what will be spent on this is still a fraction of our annual EU contribution.

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This is quite a crazy thought. But you are indeed right.

Well I guess we'll see what happens. People talk about it like it's the end of days lol.

undertaker given how you consistently ignore my economic points, most likely because you can't refute it and simply admit someone else being wrong you just ignore it and try to shift the topic to one you think you can win, despite the original post being economic, I refuse to reply any further

The European Commission has proposed that trucks from the UK will be "temporarily allowed" to carry goods into the EU until the end of 2019 under a 'no-deal' Brexit provided that the UK offers equivalent rights to the EU

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) December 19, 2018

More evidence that mini-agreements and provisional measures will be applied on both sides to avoid disruption. Managed No Deal.

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

undertaker given how you consistently ignore my economic points, most likely because you can't refute it and simply admit someone else being wrong you just ignore it and try to shift the topic to one you think you can win, despite the original post being economic, I refuse to reply any further

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You're not making any points by telling me GDP will drop and people will die. Outline for me *how* GDP will drop and *how* people will die and then maybe I can reply to something. Simply repeating discredited Treasury warnings just doesn't cut the mustard. Tell us *how*.

I did outline it and did not mention any treasury reports as far as I can see

99 days.

No Deal no longer “unlikely” - Government

Government has in past 24 hours quietly edited every No Deal technical notice to take out word “unlikely” from the sentence “in the unlikely event of no deal...”

Now says “in the event of no deal”.

See before and after on medicines👇🏾 pic.twitter.com/KrWHCMGng9

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 20, 2018

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

I did outline it and did not mention any treasury reports as far as I can see

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Looked back, only one I can really see is regarding border post controls. So i'll address it.

In terms of cargo coming in from Dover and customs controls, I cannot see how this can't be coped with for the reason that customs controls are already operating for any and cargo from Switzerland, Russia, Norway and other non-EU countries. That customs system already exists so could be expanded to simply include EU countries too. Vice-versa this has already happened, with French and Dutch authorities taking on more customs staff.

Now let's say there's not enough time to have such a system fully operational. Well, as the tweet above regarding the EU's intentions outlines, we can simply unilaterally choose, like them, not to apply customs controls to EU cargo until such a time where by we are able to operate a system that can cope with the volume of imports at Dover and through the tunnel.

The idea of mile-long queues and chaos at Dover is OTT. We have 3-months approaching, and we always have the unilateral option too.

"could simply be expanded"
spoken by someone who's never worked in IT or at a border...

regardless none of that actually addresses what I said
simply put, there will be some disruption to the flow of goods (which is undeniable given the extra admin) and this will negatively impact gdp
I never said it would be chaos, that it wouldn't be managable at some point in the future, but simply that any new border controls will have a negative impact to gdp which you haven't denied and from a consumers point of view, new tarrif charges will be passed on to the consumer which means they will have lower purchasing power

all to allegedly save about £20 of my own money a year, which will mostly go in to replacing the vacuum it leaves or perhaps funding a bunch of trips for MPs so they can go on holiday arrange trade deals

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

"could simply be expanded"
spoken by someone who's never worked in IT or at a border...

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Are you claiming it is impossible to expand our existing customs regime to the EU27? yes/no

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

regardless none of that actually addresses what I said
simply put, there will be some disruption to the flow of goods (which is undeniable given the extra admin) and this will negatively impact gdp
I never said it would be chaos, that it wouldn't be managable at some point in the future, but simply that any new border controls will have a negative impact to gdp which you haven't denied

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If the system is poorly designed and not capable, then yes there could be delays. But every other country around the world has a customs regime as a perfectly normal thing with it's neighbours, and somehow they aren't all in recession. It will make zero difference in the longer term, especially as increasing trade volumes (imports) to Britain are coming from outside of the EU anyway and thus outside of the EU Customs Union.

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

and from a consumers point of view, new tarrif charges will be passed on to the consumer which means they will have lower purchasing power

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That depends if we wish to apply high EU-style tariffs.

Meanwhile non-EU tariffs will be able to be cut drastically, something we can't do now thanks to French farmers - for example.

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Originally Posted by dbgtz

all to allegedly save about £20 of my own money a year, which will mostly go in to replacing the vacuum it leaves or perhaps funding a bunch of trips for MPs so they can go on holiday arrange trade deals

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Oh dear. You really can only view Brexit through the GDP lense, can't you?

For most of us who voted Leave it had nothing to do with GDP.