May's Deal Vote - Tonight

[-:Undertaker:-]

May's Deal Vote - Tonight

With 73 days to go, the Prime Minister's Deal comes to the House of Commons tonight

The Prime Minister's EU Withdrawal Treaty is coming to the House of Commons tonight for a vote.

It's expected to lose by historic proportions. There's 73 days remain until Britain leaves the European Union.

What happens next? Well, in the event of a treaty not being passed, No Deal is the de facto legal position.

That said, many eurosceptics believe that faced with No Deal, the Republic of Ireland will pressure the EU to give last minute concessions as it faces steep tariffs on it's exports, the majority of which are sent into Britain via Northern Ireland. There's a hint of this...

JUST IN: German Foreign Minister Maas says if May's Brexit deal is rejected by parliament today there could be new talks with the EU pic.twitter.com/yAuNFzOnwM

— Reuters UK (@ReutersUK) January 15, 2019

If the defeat is as big as expected, Labour are expected to try and trigger a General Election immediately with a VONC.

The vote is expected this evening at around 7 o'clock.

Thoughts?

[FlyingJesus]

Such a waste of time and presumably public money. We all know it's going to be voted down, and then Corbyn's going to waste MORE time and money with a vote of no confidence that he's already stated he can't win... It's all so petty and all of them are just looking after their own interests right now. Should just be getting on with it

[-:Undertaker:-]

Looks like this won't be the last we see of this deal.

I hear the PM just told Cabinet she will push on with her Brexit deal, no matter the size of tonight's defeat, as "it’s the only option". A big push from Rudd/Clark/Gauke/Perry to open talks with moderate Labour MPs, but rejected by Hunt/Javid/Fox/Lewis/Truss/Williamson.

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) January 15, 2019

So long as the clock is run down...

[-:Undertaker:-]

GOVERNMENT DEFEAT: The House of Commons has rejected the Government's #BrexitDeal in the #MeaningfulVote.

The Commons voted 432 to 202 - a majority of 230.#BrexitVote pic.twitter.com/iSyyyqCJ4a

— UK House of Commons (@HouseofCommons) January 15, 2019

A defeat on this size usually means not only the end of a PM, but a government. But these are not normal times.

[FlyingJesus]

Surprised even that many liked her shit deal plan tbh. Aaaaaaand now Red Jez has called for a VONC to waste more of our time and airwaves

[Zak]

I saw it coming but not by that margin lol

[Inseriousity.]

Loses by over 200, staggers on and decides to "listen to colleagues and return to the EU." Hasn't she just spent a month doing exactly that and only got a letter for her troubles?!! Sometimes I feel sorry for her but all she knows how to do is kick the can down the road. It's all her own fault.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Why are we returning to the EU for anything? is the real question. The whole thing is back-to-front.

How it should go is, we tell the EU we're not doing this unacceptable deal and they're not getting a penny of their £39bn they claim to be owed. If and when they're feeling reasonable to discuss a Free Trade Deal, they can give us a call and we'll pick up the phone to consider it.

Then start ringing around the people who actually *want* to trade and be friends with us instead of demanding parts of our country as a price.

EU sources are ruling out a special summit or the reopening of the Withdrawal Agreement in the strongest terms this evening.

— Adam Fleming (@adamfleming) January 15, 2019

The risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the UK has increased with this evening's vote. While we do not want this to happen, we will continue our contingency work to help ensure EU is fully prepared.

Statement by @JunckerEU https://t.co/ExEVxwZRoG #BrexitVote #Brexit pic.twitter.com/KEvXL8GLtC

— European Commission (@EU_Commission) January 15, 2019

[Zak]

Loses by over 200, staggers on and decides to "listen to colleagues and return to the EU." Hasn't she just spent a month doing exactly that and only got a letter for her troubles?!! Sometimes I feel sorry for her but all she knows how to do is kick the can down the road. It's all her own fault.

I always thought Theresa May would be used as a scapegoat. You're right though, everyone saw it coming.. it's almost as though she was hoping to blackmail Parliament to vote her deal through because it was close to the deadline.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I always thought Theresa May would be used as a scapegoat. You're right though, everyone saw it coming.. it's almost as though she was hoping to blackmail Parliament to vote her deal through because it was close to the deadline.

To be fair to the Prime Minister, she is offering Remoaners a deal favourable to them but they're so in denial about the referendum result that they cannot bring themselves to vote for it. Labour's position is absurd, claiming to want a Customs Union "with a say" which simply doesn't exist and won't exist. There's not a majority for any solution in the Commons, yet No Deal is the default - which is why I said all the way back 2 years ago that I welcomed the A50 mechanism for leaving when many eurosceptics were against it, I said in the end it could favour us and so it has.

In terms of revoking or extending A50, the EU would only accept this if it were to facilitate another referendum or General Election - and only a government has the power to put this forward to the House of Commons. If they tried doing this, it is almost certain that the government would collapse and the Tory Party would formally split apart. No matter how you look at it, all roads seem to lead to paralysis and No Deal outcome.

"We are clear we wont be delaying article 50. We won't be revoking it" - @andrealeadsom #r4today

— norman smith (@Thehackandhound) January 16, 2019

Anyone hoping for Labour to back a second referendum if they lose tomorrow's confidence vote shouldn't hold their breath. Corbyn spokesman just made clear that repeated confidence motions and an attempt to get Labour's own Brexit plan through Commons far more likely.

— Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) January 15, 2019

Hmm. All supporters of no deal need is for 550 very ambitious and driven people, with incompatible aims and incentives, to fail to reach consensus in the next 70 days. It may not happen but it isn’t the world’s worst strategy. https://t.co/tIE1pASdEQ

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) January 15, 2019

Going on from the paralysis point, 70 Labour MPs who lost the first referendum have just called for a second referendum which is now splitting the Labour Party. Blairites who hate Corbyn are angling to split formally from the Labour Party and his refusal to back a second referendum could be the issue that tips them.

By calling a vote of no confidence Labour has ironically switched the focus from Tory splits to their own. Clear the front bench is holding back from a 2nd referendum. From my conversations, feels like this may build to the moment when several MPs decide to split from the party.

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) January 16, 2019

As ever, there are divides within divides. Not clear how/when backbench Labour MPs would peel off, or even whether it’d be particularly coordinated - they don’t know themselves. But several are waiting for the right opportunity, and failure to push for a second ref may be it.

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) January 16, 2019

One Labour MP tells me it’s time for colleagues to accept “their influence on the party has reached the end of the road”. In other words there’s no point trying to steer the ship, it’s time to abandon it.

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) January 16, 2019

BUT THAT'S NOT ALL. Even among the minority of those who want a second referendum, there are splits. Many won't support a formal split from the Labour and Conservative parties. And they disagree amongst themselves to what the referendum question would be.

Absolute paralysis, like I said lmao.