EU Referendum Megathread (Brexit)

[-:Undertaker:-]

I won't pick up on it all but a quick comment about the trade deals side of it.

There are many benefits to staying in the EU, considering more than 50 per cent of our exports go to EU countries, allows us to have a say over how trading rules are drawn up. The say might be small but it is better than no voice if we leave the EU.

A few points on this.

- Exports to the EU are now under 50% with over 50% going to outside of the EU.
- Exports to the EU are in reality even lower than the official figure of 47% in 2014 due to the 'Rotterdam Effect'.
- The percentage of our exports that go to the EU will severely decline over the coming decades as India, China & the Commonwealth grow (below).

- Many international trade agreements are now decided at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) of which we do not have a seat due to EU membership.
- Our 'influence' in the EU is virtually non-existent. In the % of the Council/Commission/Parliament we have only a small allocation of votes.

According tot he BBC, the EU is currently negotiating with the US to create the world's biggest free trade area, something that will be highly beneficial to British business.

The US-EU trade deal is now in seventh rounds of talks and looks to be going nowhere anytime soon.

What is interesting to note however is that tiny non-EU Switzerland (but a member of the non-political and purely economic EFTA) has had an FTA with America since the 1970s and signed an FTA with the People's Republic of China in 2013: something the EU has also failed to do despite being much larger than Switzerland. If my memory serves me correctly too, the Swiss have a similar number of FTAs in operation currently to the entire EU which again goes to show what "influence" it has when it comes to global trade. It isn't exactly your size which matters, but what you have to offer or are willing to offer.

#VoteStay

I'm curious so two quick questions really. What do you think the EU offers us that we cannot have or attain by being outside of the bloc?

And what is it that the EU offers which to your mind is worth the price of £10bn+ a year along with our national democracy and independence?

[-:Undertaker:-]

^ Correction above regarding Swiss-American FTA as my editing time had ran out.

No such fully pledged FTA yet exists between the two countries as I had misread. Other smaller agreements do exist between the two though.

[abc]

Just a quick update: Vote to remain in EU now leads the polls over Exit.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Just a quick update: Vote to remain in EU now leads the polls over Exit.

It has been leading for a while now, except the gap (especially on phone polls) has narrowed sharply in the past two weeks.

I think Professor John Curtice's Poll of Polls now has Remain down to +1 ahead.

[Lucy]

Just a quick update: Vote to remain in EU now leads the polls over Exit.

I am hesitant to believe the polls after what happened with the National Election.

[abc]

I am hesitant to believe the polls after what happened with the National Election.

Same, but I thought i'd post given Dan posted every week how the Brexit was in the lead.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Same, but I thought i'd post given Dan posted every week how the Brexit was in the lead.

Have I really? it's certainly news to me. Where I have posted that and on what dates?

[abc]

Have I really? it's certainly news to me. Where I have posted that and on what dates?

01/01/16
07/01/16
13/01/16
19/01/16
25/01/16
31/01/16
06/02/16
12/02/16
18/02/16
24/02/16
01/03/16
07/03/16
13/03/16
19/03/16
25/03/16
31/03/16
06/04/16
12/04/16
18/04/16
24/04/16
30/04/16


Having gone through your posts, I found the above dates.

[The Don]

IMF: EU exit could cause severe damage

The UK's exit from the European Union could cause "severe regional and global damage", the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest outlook.

A so-called "Brexit" would disrupt established trading relationships and cause "major challenges" for both the UK and the rest of Europe, it said.

The IMF said the referendum had already created uncertainty for investors and a vote to exit would only heighten this.

The IMF, one of the main pillars of the global economic order with a mandate to oversee the international monetary and financial system, also cut its UK growth forecast.

It now expects 1.9% growth in the UK this year, compared with its January estimate of 2.2%. For next year, it expects 2.2% growth, unchanged from its earlier forecast.

If the 23 June referendum in the UK were to produce a vote in favour of leaving the EU, the IMF would expect negotiations on post-exit arrangements to be protracted, which it warned "could weigh heavily on confidence and investment, all the while increasing financial market volatility".

It also believes a UK exit from the EU would "disrupt and reduce mutual trade and financial flows" and restrict benefits from economic co-operation and integration, such as those resulting from economies of scale.

However, the Fund said that domestic demand, boosted by lower energy prices and a buoyant property market, would help to offset the impact on UK growth ahead of the EU referendum.

Chancellor George Osborne said the IMF's comments reinforced the case for staying. "The IMF has given us the clearest independent warning of the taste of bad things to come if we leave the EU," he said.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister David Cameron tweeted: "The IMF is right - leaving the EU would pose major risks for the UK economy. We are stronger, safer and better off in the European Union."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36024492

Another warning from another important body, although i'm sure they're completely wrong and Dan will come in and explain how this is all rubbish :rolleyes:

[-:Undertaker:-]

01/01/16
07/01/16
13/01/16
19/01/16
25/01/16
31/01/16
06/02/16
12/02/16
18/02/16
24/02/16
01/03/16
07/03/16
13/03/16
19/03/16
25/03/16
31/03/16
06/04/16
12/04/16
18/04/16
24/04/16
30/04/16


Having gone through your posts, I found the above dates.

I'm talking about this thread.

IMF: EU exit could cause severe damage

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36024492

Another warning from another important body, although i'm sure they're completely wrong and Dan will come in and explain how this is all rubbish :rolleyes:

Important organisations, companies, corporations and people all once told us to join the Eurozone too.

Had we took their warnings of doom if we did not join seriously, then we'd have lost many jobs with the Euro crisis.

Vote Leave, the group campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union, criticised the IMF's findings saying it had "been consistently wrong in past forecasts about the UK and other countries".

"The IMF has talked down the British economy in the past and now it is doing it again at the request of our own Chancellor. It was wrong then and it is wrong now," said Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott.

"The biggest risk to the UK's economy and security is remaining in an unreformed EU which is institutionally incapable of dealing with the challenges it faces, such as the euro and migration crises."

Former chancellor Lord Lamont also dismissed the IMF's concerns as "assertions… for which there is no real evidence".

He said the IMF was "very closely connected to the European Union" and was therefore "bound to reflect their views".

"The idea that we wouldn't continue trading on a perfectly normal basis is just fantasy," he added.

Credit ratings agency Moody's recently said the the impact of the UK leaving the EU would be "small" and was unlikely to lead to big job losses.

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/...it_wrong_again

• The IMF has talked down the UK’s economy before – but has been consistently wrong in past forecasts about the UK and other countries.
• There is no substantive evidence that the referendum has created uncertainty.
• The IMF’s forecasts released today show UK growth to be robust, better than the Eurozone this year, and better than advanced economies next year.
• The real risk to the UK economy is staying attached to the failing Eurozone, which the IMF acknowledges is ‘weak’ and a ‘concern’.
• Many of the other IMF claims about the effect of a leave vote on sterling and trade are mistaken.
• The EU institutions want to take the UK’s seat on the IMF. The European Parliament is calling for this today and the Commission has set out detailed plans to make this change. The safer choice is to Vote Leave.

Q. Do @The_Don; and @abc; support the EU taking the British seat on the IMF away as it intends to do?

As it has done on the World Trade Organisation and as it wishes to do with our UN Security Council Seat.