Deja vu: French Presidential polls continue to tighten
Interesting. Quite big swings her way already and the campaign isn't even in full swing just yet.
Often, to predict an outcome in these things you don't just look at the polling question on the issue but attitudes polling/surveys to gauge a picture. That's why even when 'Out' was behind by quite a margin in direct EU polling one or two years ago I wasn't consigned to defeat because I knew the background polling/attitudes of the public were instinctively deeply eurosceptic. From that, I knew it was possible to win over 50% of the public to back Leave - it was simply a matter of running a convincing campaign.
One of the striking things about France and this election was a survey that came out a while back which suggested French voters are most longing for a 'strong leader' ..... so you can guess who this fertile discontent will benefit most.
I'd say all bets are off. It's possible.
Last edited by -:Undertaker:-; 17-02-2017 at 04:33 PM.
limited activity 10th february - 26th
I don't think she will win. As far as I know, the French system is purely a majority of votes wins whereas the US is dependent on state (I believe if you look at just votes then Trump didn't hold the majority/plurality).
She's certainly had a popularity increase but I don't believe it's enough.