Radical Left politician Melenchon surging just weeks before first French vote

[-:Undertaker:-]

Radical Left politician Melenchon surging just weeks before first round of French Presidential Election

The top two of the first round - currently Macron and Le Pen - will face off in a run-off election a few weeks later

From left to right: Fillion, Macron, Melenchon, Le Pen and Hamon

Whoa. Check out these numbers...
Latest BVA poll - Round 1 France
Fieldwork April 5-7
Changes since last BVA poll pic.twitter.com/AckAgl6Wgw

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 7, 2017

Said for a while now Macron's vote looks as soft as ice cream in summer - he's clearly stalling. Maybe because there's no compelling idea https://t.co/7jfCRMcTCp

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 7, 2017

Usual caveats, one poll does not equal a result etc. But Melenchon *is* gaining.

A background to what he, Melenchon, stands for. Basically a French Jeremy Corbyn.

Mélenchon is an outspoken critic of the European Union (EU), which he claims has been corrupted through neoliberalism. During his 2012 campaign, Mélenchon positioned himself against the trend towards economic globalisation, which he denounced as disproportionately profiting the financial industry and "high income earners" at the expense of the poor. He insisted international organisations such as the EU threatened to "strangle the voice of the people".

He also supports a renegotiation of European treaties.

Mélenchon opposes the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which he perceives as an affront to France's national sovereignty. He has repeatedly called for France to withdraw from NATO.

Alluding to what Goodwin says above in the tweets, the polling data behind the polling suggests that although Macron is currently in the lead (just) his vote is much less solid than any of the other candidates. He's stalling.

I would delight in a Le Pen vs Melenchon contest as it would dump that Blair clone establishment fake Macron and leave two anti-EU candidates left in the race to be the President of a country which, without, the EU would face disintegration.

This will be the most exciting election this year and it's getting even more interesting.

Thoughts?

[Landon]

I'm not familiar with the French government and nor am I really interested. But I wonder how it would play out of he were elected.

In the US, if Bernie Sanders were elected, nothing would have ever gotten done because of the conservative leaning congress.

[-:Undertaker:-]

@Landon;

In France the Presidency is very powerful, one of the most powerful republics on the planet. Much more so than the US Presidency.

I am backing Marine Le Pen of course.

[Landon]

@Landon;

In France the Presidency is very powerful, one of the most powerful republics on the planet. Much more so than the US Presidency.

I am backing Marine Le Pen of course.

Haha based on a quick search via wikipedia, the National Front party that she is in seems to be more rightist than US 'Republicans'?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Haha based on a quick search via wikipedia, the National Front party that she is in seems to be more rightist than US 'Republicans'?

Correct. At the same time, in French style, she rejects neoliberalism/free markets. In that regard, she's to the left. I have always said she is a much cleverer politician and much more ideological than either Farage or Trump. A real 'depth' to her.

[Landon]

Correct. At the same time, in French style, she rejects neoliberalism/free markets. In that regard, she's to the left. I have always said she is a much cleverer politician and much more ideological than either Farage or Trump. A real 'depth' to her.

Too bad they literally have very little of a say in the government based on their numbers in "congress" or whatever you want to call it.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Up again with another pollster.

New poll France Rd 1
(Change since Mar 15-17)
Macron 24 (-2
Le Pen 24 (-2
Melenchon 18 (+6) <- !!!!
Fillon 17 (-)
Hamon 9 (-3
Kantar Apr 5-7

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 9, 2017

[-:Undertaker:-]

Fascinating series of tweets I came across.

Anyone getting echoes of the referendum here? Numbers 3 and 9 but *especially* 4.

In past polling I have seen on attitudes of French voters also suggests more deep discontent in general and with the EU than Britons. On the face of it, that would *suggest* she is capable of reaching over the 50% mark in round two.

1/ Spent roughly two weeks talking to voters in rural central France & urban areas in S. East & West. A few things I noticed:

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

2/ France's mass unemployment problem came up again and again as a key source of worry & anger at the political class

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

3/ There was overwhelming sense of wanting to kick the current political system, send the harshest message possible in the presidential vote

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

4/ Many intending to vote Le Pen hadn't voted Le Pen in any election before & hadn't voted in local elections in the past 5 years.

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

5/ More anti EU-feeling among Le Pen and Mélenchon voters than general polls might suggest

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

6/ Anger at the traditional political class and total breakdown in trust for them. Distrust of media.

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

7/ Voters who said they were undecided didn't mean they were left-wing. There were undecided voters who said they might choose Le Pen

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

8/ A fluidity & wavering in choices. A trad right-wing voter who said "why not try Le Pen?" A 2012 Mélenchon voter who would choose Macron

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

9/ Majority said the most important thing was change. "Things have to change","Things have to be shaken up"

— Angelique Chrisafis (@achrisafis) April 10, 2017

[lemons]

I'm surprised at the scale of the rallies all the candidates have had (similar to US ones) - very large!

UK politics never sees rallies that big