UK General Election 2017 Megathread

[-:Undertaker:-]

A Welsh poll out now as equally historic and stunning.

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (+12)
LAB: 30% (-3)
PC: 13% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-7)

(via YouGov)
Chgs. w/ Jan

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 24, 2017

This is earthquake territory. First time Tories ahead in Wales since 1922. More on this on @LBC at 6.30pm with Professor @roger_scully https://t.co/kLaIXwPahD

— Iain Dale ⚒️🇺🇦.🇮🇱.🇬🇬 (@IainDale) April 24, 2017

Wales, the principality of coal mining and trade unions. Tory.

Brexit (Wales voted Leave) is resulting is a seismic shift in politics. These aren't normal poll movements.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Here's two maps (2015 results vs projected results) of what Britain could look like electorally if these polls turn out true.

*Doesn't include Northern Irish seats*


2015 results






2017 projections




Things can still get worse for Labour too as they did in 1983 when the party nearly collapsed...

Useful reminder from David Cowling on what happened to Labour under Michael Foot during the 1983 campaign - things got worse - deja vu pic.twitter.com/8lcojZC2c0

— Ben Page (@benatipsos) April 24, 2017

Keep thinking Tories can't hold this poll lead & then remembering attack campaign hasn't actually started yet & actually it could rise

— gabyhinsliff (@gabyhinsliff) April 24, 2017

[dbgtz]

Hopefully the Conservative Party is resembling the life cycle of a star - expansion and then implosion.

http://www.isbuc.co.uk/expenses/index.php
don't you just love democracy in action

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.isbuc.co.uk/expenses/index.php
don't you just love democracy in action

Whilst aware of the allegations of campaign overspending by the Conservatives which should be investigated, that website you linked to sounds very much like a bitter Remainer/covert campaign still trying to make out the government was illegitimate thus the referendum was illegitimate which is why I suspect you are so concerned about this issue above all others.

What makes me think that? Various unprompted, seemingly unrelated references to Ukip, the EU and the referendum.

The Background

In May 2014, attempting to steal a little UKIP limelight, David Cameron promised that if The Conservatives won the next General Election, if they had a majority, if he was still leader ...he'd try to reform the EU and then hold an EU referendum before the end of 2017. Very few took him seriously.

Later in 2014 one resignation and two defections to UKIP saw the Conservatives contesting three unexpected by-elections that had Cameron's leadership teetering on a ledge.

Right up to the day when the General Election votes rolled in, Cameron's EU promise was widely accepted as the impossible dream.

Perhaps it was.

The Reason

It's all about Legitimacy. The Conservatives won the 2015 General Election returning 331 MPs which gave them a 12 seat majority.

If just 6 winning MPs independently broke the law to win their seats this would reduce the number of Conservatives in Westminster to the magic 325 and they'd no longer have a majority.

However the very real possibility of a Party wide conspiracy, systematically cheating to win, has attracted the Electoral Commission's eye - resulting in them requesting the involvement of various Police Authorities and the Crown (CPS) Prosecution Service - and, if proven, signals the end of Westminster as we know it.

Just imagine if everything the Conservative Gov't has enacted since 2015 turns out to have no democratic legitimacy.

[dbgtz]

Whilst aware of the allegations of campaign overspending by the Conservatives which should be investigated, that website you linked to sounds very much like a bitter Remainer/covert campaign still trying to make out the government was illegitimate thus the referendum was illegitimate which is why I suspect you are so concerned about this issue above all others.

What makes me think that? Various unprompted, seemingly unrelated references to Ukip, the EU and the referendum.

Actually it's more the fact she's calling a referendum so she doesn't lose a majority, and nothing else. If these people re-win their seats then it seems like they'd be able to keep them, since they (presumably) didn't commit fraud to win the seat this time: https://news.channel4.com/livepages/...e-Decision.pdf (point #10). It's not irrelevant either since you can attribute the overspending to making sure UKIP doesn't win the seat. Regardless if the creator is a "bitter remainer", it doesn't make the actual expenses part untrue. You seem to basically be fobbing it off because of this since it suits your gains.

But what makes you think I take this issue as big as any other? I just happened to come across the site and posted it on here.
Like this site which predicts school funding cuts from a Conservative government (damn kids should learn on their own!): http://schoolcuts.org.uk/#/
This one about UKIP which I think speaks for itself: http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoo...-year-10849237
One about Tim Farron on his religion and him being a bit weird with it but overall seems like he would keep it out of politics, relatively speaking.
One about George Osborne completely failing on his deficit targets. Long term economic plan.
Literally just came across this general analysis of the Conservatives https://libegalfrat.wordpress.com/20...ure-2010-2017/ (haven't check it thoroughly but it seems well cited)
This lovely one about wage growth http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7157681.html
This lovely (but slightly dated) article about working hours (which was in a post about the Corbyn bank holiday blah) https://www.theguardian.com/news/dat...-working-hours
And there's this Reddit post with lots of shit https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingd...he_damage_the/

tl;dr I surprisingly pay attention to more than one issue.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I'm not fobbing the issue off at all, merely trying to see what your motives are. But just to state, the EU Referendum Act would have passed with a smaller majority anyway with the DUP, Ukip and rebel Labour MPs. Regardless of whether it would have passed or not, it's taken place now and was given the largest democratic mandate in British history. It's done.

Like I said, voting on Brexit/Immigration and Grammar schools.



On more general note, Corbyn supporters on my Facebook keep sharing this.... not sure how accurate it is but if true it just makes me like Theresa May more. Only ones I disagree with her there on are VAT increase and the Iraq war/investigations.

[dbgtz]

I'm not fobbing the issue off at all, merely trying to see what your motives are. But just to state, the EU Referendum Act would have passed with a smaller majority anyway with the DUP, Ukip and rebel Labour MPs. Regardless of whether it would have passed or not, it's taken place now and was given the largest democratic mandate in British history. It's done.

Like I said, voting on Brexit/Immigration and Grammar schools.

I don't give a flying **** about the EU referendum at this point. These people (potentially) got themselves into parliament fraudulently and people such as yourself give absolutely no regard for this or the fact this early election, which was repeatedly stated that it wouldn't happen, is probably only a thing so they don't lose said majority.

And we had this same bloody conversation about the mandate 3 months ago today where you tried to spin away from the topic: https://www.habboxforum.com/showthre...te#post8500935
It does not have the biggest mandate in history. The original EEC referendum in 1975 had far greater total public support for the result. Do not spin this again into me saying it's still legitimate now. All I am saying is your claim that the result in the 2016 referendum is a joke to say the least.

Also what's the point in voting for grammar schools when funding is going down the can anyway, and similarly for immigration when David Davis suggests immigration won't go down https://www.theguardian.com/politics...r-brexit-video
We're a nation which depends on most migrants, yes even the peasant ones so gl.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I don't give a flying **** about the EU referendum at this point. These people (potentially) got themselves into parliament fraudulently and people such as yourself give absolutely no regard for this or the fact this early election, which was repeatedly stated that it wouldn't happen, is probably only a thing so they don't lose said majority.

And we had this same bloody conversation about the mandate 3 months ago today where you tried to spin away from the topic: https://www.habboxforum.com/showthre...te#post8500935

I do care about it, as I have said over and over they should be investigated and criminal charges brought if need be. I was aware of reports of overspending before the 2015 General Election concluded, especially in Thanet. But did I moan? No, because at the end of the day we lost and our vote was squeezed. Other parties managed to win seats, we did not. I could easily blame the Conservatives but at the end of the day the national squeeze combined with inferior campaigning lost us it. Hey ho.

It does not have the biggest mandate in history. The original EEC referendum in 1975 had far greater total public support for the result. Do not spin this again into me saying it's still legitimate now. All I am saying is your claim that the result in the 2016 referendum is a joke to say the least.

Yes it does. More people voted for Leave than for anything else ever in the history of this Kingdom.

17.4m voted to Leave the EU in 2016.

17.3m voted to stay in the EEC in 1975.

One is relevant today and the other is not just as the Liberal Party results under Gladstone in the 1880s aren't relevant now.

Also what's the point in voting for grammar schools when funding is going down the can anyway, and similarly for immigration when David Davis suggests immigration won't go down https://www.theguardian.com/politics...r-brexit-video
We're a nation which depends on most migrants, yes even the peasant ones so gl.

No the nation doesn't depend on immigration, that's a lazy and unproven assertion. Greedy big corporations depend on it.

Oh, and Labour. For the votes of third worlders as the British working classes abandon them in droves.

[dbgtz]

I do care about it, as I have said over and over they should be investigated and criminal charges brought if need be. I was aware of reports of overspending before the 2015 General Election concluded, especially in Thanet. But did I moan? No, because at the end of the day we lost and our vote was squeezed. Other parties managed to win seats, we did not. I could easily blame the Conservatives but at the end of the day the national squeeze combined with inferior campaigning lost us it. Hey ho.

But the seat was lost by illegitimate means. I mean, I could talk about lies and all that during elections and so forth but it's difficult to make lying during elections illegal, but limiting money spent is easy and does make a difference to the result. The fact you just accepted this is ridiculous.

Yes it does. More people voted for Leave than for anything else ever in the history of this Kingdom.

One is relevant today and the other is not just as the Liberal Party results under Gladstone in the 1880s aren't relevant now.

Lol @ using raw numbers. I'm honestly just gobsmacked you did that.
You cannot use raw numbers when you're comparing now to 40 bloody years ago when we've had an increasing population since. Do you not realise how ridiculous that is??

No the nation doesn't depend on immigration, that's a lazy and unproven assertion. Greedy big corporations depend on it.

When I say nation I really just meant government and GDP (Osborne was a big fan of using GDP as a way to say "we're doing well guys" from what I recall).

Oh, and Labour. For the votes of third worlders as the British working classes abandon them in droves.

Probably true

[-:Undertaker:-]

But the seat was lost by illegitimate means. I mean, I could talk about lies and all that during elections and so forth but it's difficult to make lying during elections illegal, but limiting money spent is easy and does make a difference to the result. The fact you just accepted this is ridiculous.

I don't believe we lost because of overspending by the Conservatives. Fact is, there was a swing to the Conservatives on the day and even Ukip-inclined voters were telling Farage to his face that they wanted to vote for him but just couldn't risk letting Labour into power held up by the SNP. We were squeezed and our campaigning was inferior, our fault.

It's like the referendum. The Government spent taxpayers money on that pro-EU leaflet before the purdah kicked into action, now had we lost yes it was a dirty trick (made worse that they were using Whitehall to do their bidding) but ultimately if you lose an election or campaign it is usually your own fault. Losers in elections will always be tempted to blame something for their loss, rather than themselves. I believe in learning from campaigning - that's how you get somewhere, ie Marine Le Pen who has transformed the fortunes of the Front National since she took over from her loudmouth father.

Lol @ using raw numbers. I'm honestly just gobsmacked you did that.
You cannot use raw numbers when you're comparing now to 40 bloody years ago when we've had an increasing population since. Do you not realise how ridiculous that is??

Not really, more people vote for it than anything else in our history. That's just a fact.

Answer this - are you still seeking to block the result of the referendum?

When I say nation I really just meant government and GDP (Osborne was a big fan of using GDP as a way to say "we're doing well guys" from what I recall).

Unlike the disgraced Mr Osborne I believe there's more to a nation than GDP numbers and profit margins.

Probably true.

Indeed, which is why Labour are collapsing. Jeremy Corbyn isn't the cause.