French 2017 Presidential Election: Round 1 Results

[-:Undertaker:-]

Counting is now underway with exit polls projecting Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) and Marine Le Pen (Front National) to face off in the second round. Both main parties - the Republicans and Socialists - have failed to make the second ballot which in itself is remarkable and historic. Macron is sort of a Blair and Trudeau type figure and Le Pen is a mix of Farage and Corbyn.

A sign of the times: If Le Pen & Macron hold their leads, it would be 1st time in modern French history no major party advances to 2nd round

— James Makey (@JamesMakey1917) April 23, 2017

With 9m votes counted Le Pen on 25%, Macron 21%

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) April 23, 2017

Benoit Hamon, leader of socialist party at 6-7%, a crushing defeat, worst in living memories.The end of French socialism as we have known it

— Agnes C. Poirier (@AgnesCPoirier) April 23, 2017

If Macron v Le Pen then, as I was saying on Sunday Politics, 1st time in history of 5th republic, neither mainstream party made 2nd round

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) April 23, 2017

Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen to contest French run-off, projected results say https://t.co/W0huRdFuZ8

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) April 23, 2017

Le Pen tells supporters it's time to "free French people from arrogant elite", as she is expected to progress into next round of election pic.twitter.com/mrZtr2Y21T

— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 23, 2017

Exit polls thus far are putting Macron ahead but actual count suggesting otherwise....

[lemons]

The most interesting thing I learnt while watching BBC is that Macron met his current wife when he was 17 and she was his teacher and he said he was going to marry her while she already had a husband

[-:Undertaker:-]

Delighted with the Le Pen result myself and hopefully she can pull it off. If not this year then certainly 2022 because as sure as I am sitting here a President Macron will make President Hollande look popular in a few months time. Both main parties have been swept away, once the liberal boy wonder fails by not changing anything there will be nothing in her way for a 2022 run.

"Vive le Peuple ! Vive la République ! Vive la France !" #Présidentielle2017 #AuNomDuPeuple pic.twitter.com/efXB5Tom2G

— Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) April 23, 2017

How Le Pen plans to take on Macron - @GoodwinMJ via @nytimes: https://t.co/vltur244jp pic.twitter.com/UBK7Daub8F

— Chatham House (@ChathamHouse) April 24, 2017

Here's some data from last night.

The most interesting thing I learnt while watching BBC is that Macron met his current wife when he was 17 and she was his teacher and he said he was going to marry her while she already had a husband

There's a lot of rumours that Macron is actually gay and in a relationship with the head of some Communications company - something like he's seen all time with him and they live together. Due to very strict privacy laws in France nothing has been said, but I certainly get that... vibe from him. He's a PR man to the core so wouldn't surprise me.

[scottish]

awkward, just realised marine le pen is a female and not the party name.

[-:Undertaker:-]

French far-right presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen has announced that she is temporarily stepping down as her party's leader

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) April 24, 2017

Interesting and surprising development.

The first thing that came to my mind was that her personal brand is stronger than the still-toxic Front National brand. Removing the FN label from next to her name on the ballot paper will remove that apprehension some may have when placing their crosses in two weeks time, especially when she's seeking to capture votes from the Left (Melenchon) and the Right (Fillion). She's a very smart and strategic operator, so you can bet this has been in planning for a while - can only assume they've done polling and research on this which suggests this is the case.

In many ways this mirrors Vote Leave who didn't want to be seen as a Ukip front as this would alienate potential convert voters.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The final round takes place next weekend.

She's closing the polls slightly but still a 9% swing needed to bring it to 50/50. There's been criticism that Macron's campaign has been arrogant and rather lazy in assuming that it'll win. Reminds me of the Clinton campaign.

Le Pen on the other hand has been conducting a grassroots campaign where she's attempting to appeal to Melenchon and Fillion voters at the same time. The other day she was in Nice, the city stronghold of Fillion, to appeal to conservatives with a strong message on immigration. To capture Melenchon's voters (and he's refusing to endorse Macron) she's appealing to socialist heartlands in the north and east of France.

France: Presidential election (run-off), Odoxa poll:

Macron (EM-*): 59% (-4)
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 41% (+4)

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 29, 2017

Currently a lot are planning to abstain, especially on the Left, and many are undecided which could narrow the contest by a substantial margin. Assuming swing voters will go for the establishment option nowadays is incorrect, as we saw in the EU referendum and US Presidency Election 2017 the swing voters actually broke on the day for Leave and Republican.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Latest poll.

France: Presidential election (run-off), ELABE poll:

Macron (EM-*): 59% (-3)
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 41% (+3)#Debat2017

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 3, 2017

The two of them debated tonight. A two and a half hour debate sitting down with little moderation. Intense.


Nigel Farage has tonight finally openly endorsed Le Pen.

I want to see @MLP_officiel win on Sunday. She is the right candidate for Brexit Britain. https://t.co/y4FLAzKQ9C

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) May 3, 2017