The demographics dividing Britain: YouGov

[-:Undertaker:-]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/25...iding-britain/

The demographics dividing Britain: YouGov

As the campaign starts, YouGov data shows how class, age, gender, education and income will shape the electorate

In announcing the snap election, Theresa May set out her desire to create a “more united” country in the aftermath of last year’s referendum. But as the campaign begins, new YouGov analysis of over 12,000 people shows the demographic dividing lines of British voters.

Although every voter is an individual, this data shows how demographics relate to electoral behaviour. These divides will shape the next few weeks – from the seats the parties target to the key messages they use. Over the course of the campaign we will not just be monitoring the “headline” voting intention numbers, but also the many different types of voters that make up the electorate.

There's more findings via the link but the main two are class and age which I have quoted below.

Class: No longer a good predictor of voting behaviour

“Class” used to be central to understanding British politics. The Conservatives, to all intents and purposes, were the party of the middle class and Labour that of the workers. The dividing lines were so notable that you could predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, how someone would vote just by knowing their social grade. For example at the 1992 election the Conservatives lead Labour amongst ABC1 (middle class) voters by around 30 points, whilst Labour was leading amongst C2DE (working class) voters by around 10 percentage points.

But today, class would tell you little more about a person’s voting intention that looking at their horoscope or reading their palms. As this campaign starts, the Conservatives hold a 22% lead amongst middle class voters and a 17% lead amongst working class ones.




Age: The new dividing line in British politics

In electoral terms, age is the new class. The starkest way to show this is to note that Labour is 19% ahead when it comes to 18-24 year-olds and the Conservatives are ahead by 49% among the over 65s. Our analysis suggest that the current tipping point – which is to say the age where voters are more likely to favour the Conservatives over Labour – is 34.

In fact, for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around 8% and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by 6%. This age divide could create further problems for Labour on 8 June. Age is also a big driver of turnout, with older people being far more likely to vote than young people. It’s currently too early to tell the exact impact this could have on the final result.

A really interesting series of polls there.

The end of class as a divide in politics is collapsing the Left and not just in Britain - anyone following the French election can see how Marine Le Pen's Front National is basically taking over traditional working class areas as the party to vote for.

Someone remarked how in the last century, with the replacement of the Liberals by Labour, we voted along class lines: working class vs upper class. Prior to that when it was Liberal vs Conservative it was openness/free trade vs tradition/nationalism. It appears that we're reverting back to that old divide: globalism vs nationalism/cities vs rural.

AKA a switch from economics deciding how we vote to our values now being key to how we vote.

The question is, can socialist parties like Labour survive this sea change?

[FlyingJesus]

Explains why Corbz is so keen to lower the voting age lol