Tory MPs prepare for snap autumn election over Brexit deadlock

[-:Undertaker:-]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...lock-3ppzg9l3r

Tory MPs prepare for a snap autumn election over Brexit deadlock

Tory and Labour insiders believe the country may be facing an autumn General Election

Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg and son canvassing

Conservative MPs are preparing for another snap general election as they fear the Brexit deadlock will become insurmountable for the prime minister.

Some have spoken to their local party associations asking to be readopted as prospective parliamentary candidates in readiness for an autumn election.

The back-bench MPs acted after meeting Theresa May last week for a private Brexit briefing as she tried to stop a row over Britain’s future customs relationship with the European Union tearing the party apart.

But far from being reassured by meeting the prime minister, they left Downing Street convinced that another election could be around the corner.

One Tory Brexiteer said he could not see how the government could “square the circle” and come up with a solution on Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU that would appease both sides of the warring party.

“It’s becoming clear there’s no compromise that will keep remainers such as Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve happy as well as the likes of myself and Jacob Rees-Mogg,” the MP said.

“The numbers are against us and if we face repeated defeats when the withdrawal bill returns to the Commons, the only alternative will be to kick over the table and trigger a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, which will likely lead to another general election.

“After speaking with like-minded colleagues, I have raised this with my association chairman and asked them to get on with readopting me as the candidate in my seat in anticipation that we could go to the polls as early as the autumn. I am even preparing my first leaflet drop for the summer.”

Labour MPs are also discussing the prospect of an October poll. A Labour Party insider said: “I heard two separate reports from MPs who said they had heard Conservative MPs planning for an early election.”

The revelation will heap further pressure on May, who is facing a backlash over her plans to keep the whole of the UK tied to a customs union with the EU after 2021, or until an alternative to a hard border in Ireland can be found.

Eurosceptics fear the proposal could lead to Britain being tied to the customs union indefinitely.

Rees-Mogg, the leader of a 60-strong group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs, has condemned the idea as “perpetual purgatory”. Andrew Bridgen, another member of the European Research Group, said: “If the plan is staying tied to a customs union until we find something better, the EU will never offer us anything better and we will never get out.”

Yes, if the hardcore group of continuity remainers in the Tory Party refuse to back down and honour the manifesto that the government was elected on and that they were elected on then they must have the whip withdrawn (thrown out of the party), the PM is replaced and we head for a General Election to secure a majority.

Of course, the big risk here is if no majority is secured and we end up with a nightmare scenario of the Conservatives and Labour around 280 seats each - with neither able to form a majority even with a Coalition with say the Liberal Democrats or DUP. In that scenario, you'd be looking at another General Election a few months later...

Apparently Tory MPs believe, from the Local Elections across England a few weeks ago, that with a good campaign this time they would be able to secure a parliamentary majority. The results have perked MPs up in that they believe Corbyn's Labour is defeatable.

But still, another one. If this happens, it will be the 3rd general election in 4 years.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43 (+3)
LAB: 39 (-1)
LDEM: 6 (-1)
UKIP: 4 (-1)

via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 10 - 12 Apr

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 19, 2018

Thoughts?

[FlyingJesus]

Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen

[dbgtz]

so much for strong and stable

im curious what you think the government was elected on exactly since, sure they say they will deliver brexit, but were pretty obviously avoiding defining it in any way as far as i could see
because of course, leave was not meant to get the majority of the vote as far as the pre-brexit government was concerned so why bother outlining what brexit actually entails.

[-:Undertaker:-]

so much for strong and stable

im curious what you think the government was elected on exactly since, sure they say they will deliver brexit, but were pretty obviously avoiding defining it in any way as far as i could see
because of course, leave was not meant to get the majority of the vote as far as the pre-brexit government was concerned so why bother outlining what brexit actually entails.

The Conservatives, Labour and DUP were all elected on a policy of leaving the EU Single Market and EU Customs Union.

That's 83.3% of the vote.

So if we do have to have another General Election, it'll all come down to a handful of diehard remainer "Tory" MPs like Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, Heidi Allen and Dominic Grieve who *still* can't bring themselves to accept the referendum result.

[dbgtz]

The Conservatives, Labour and DUP were all elected on a policy of leaving the EU Single Market and EU Customs Union.

That's 83.3% of the vote.

So if we do have to have another General Election, it'll all come down to a handful of diehard remainer "Tory" MPs like Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, Heidi Allen and Dominic Grieve who *still* can't bring themselves to accept the referendum result.

Conversative manifesto does say "As we leave the European Union, we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union but we will seek a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement." but equally it also says "The final agreement will be subject to a vote in both houses of parliament" which is contradictory.

Labours manifesto does not say anything about leaving the customs union or single market. "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single ��arket and the Customs Union". Intentionally vague, sure, but not a promise to leave.

The DUP make no direct reference to the customs union or single market.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Conversative manifesto does say "As we leave the European Union, we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union but we will seek a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement." but equally it also says "The final agreement will be subject to a vote in both houses of parliament" which is contradictory.

Labours manifesto does not say anything about leaving the customs union or single market. "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single ��arket and the Customs Union". Intentionally vague, sure, but not a promise to leave.

The DUP make no direct reference to the customs union or single market.

The Labour manifesto does rule out the EU Single Market.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...licy-on-brexit
https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/

Labour’s 2017 manifesto stated that “Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union. Britain’s immigration system will change.”

This was consistent with Labour’s manifesto, which promised to retain the “benefits of the single market and the customs union” without being a member of either.

And does on EU Customs Union.

We will ensure that trade agreements cannot undermine human rights and labour standards, and that UK Export Finance support is not available to companies engaged in bribery or corrupt practices.

We will work with other WTO members to end the dumping of state-subsidised goods on our markets. The Conservatives consistently blocked EU efforts to respond to such dumping with the duties needed to defend the British steel industry. Labour will develop the full range of trade remedies necessary to support key sectors affected by these unfair practices.

As did the DUP on both the EU SM and CU.

https://brexitcentral.com/dup-manifesto-said-brexit/

- Proportionate regulatory regime which can promote competiveness, with legislation to suit our local needs

- An appropriate support programme for our farmers should continue after we leave

- Customs arrangements which facilitate trade with new and existing markets

- Comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the European Union

- Progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world

[dbgtz]

The Labour manifesto does rule out the EU Single Market.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...licy-on-brexit
https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/negotiating-brexit/



And does on EU Customs Union.

So one of those will be a lie as you cannot have both, hence it being vague.

i cant be bothered to go around in circles on this but manifestos are **** anyway and you shouldnt equate that 83% or whatever as 83% support for brexit because you know thats horse shit

As did the DUP on both the EU SM and CU.

https://brexitcentral.com/dup-manifesto-said-brexit/

ya

[FlyingJesus]

manifestos are ****

4real, no legal binding to even attempt to fulfill a manifesto promise so they're a waste of ink

[-:Undertaker:-]

So one of those will be a lie as you cannot have both, hence it being vague.

i cant be bothered to go around in circles on this but manifestos are **** anyway and you shouldnt equate that 83% or whatever as 83% support for brexit because you know thats horse shit

ya

Well no, the mandate for Brexit is from the 52% who voted in the referendum. Plain and simple in my eyes. But some of the continuity remainers then go on to say how they don't believe in referendums, and therefore that General Elections are the only way... so we had one and 83% voted for parties which backed leaving the EU (+SM & CU).

Manifestos do play an important role though, and they are related to this topic. If a party has a policy in its manifesto, then the House of Lords does tend to give way after a couple of readings on a bill - this is known as the Salisbury Convention. The caveat on this is that it doesn't apply during hung parliaments, but given the House of Commons was 83% elected on leaving the SM+CU I have to say as a defender of the House of Lords it has behaved disgracefully these past few weeks, seeking to undermine the Withdrawal Bill despite the elected lower house being overwhelmingly elected on this platform.