Chequers

[-:Undertaker:-]

Chequers

Tomorrow the Cabinet gather at Chequers, the Prime Minister's country residence, for a meeting on Brexit that could bring down the Prime Minister and Government as tensions in the Tory Party boil over

The official country residence of the Prime Minister, Chequers Court in Buckinghamshire

Former Remain minister predicts resignations after Chequers: “The time has come to chose. She cannot take everyone with her any more, so someone is going to walk”. https://t.co/owNlAckQJC

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) July 5, 2018

Number 10’s proposal is that there will be a “common rule book” between the UK and EU on all goods, including agri-foods. UK will commit by treaty to mirroring EU rules and face “consequences” if we ever seek to diverge on anything.

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 5, 2018

Breaking: Number 10 has conceded to Cabinet ministers that their plan on regulatory alignment would make a trade deal with the US all but impossible

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 5, 2018

A senior member of the government says Number 10's plan will be rejected by Tory Eurosceptics

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 5, 2018

BREAKING: Jacob Rees-Mogg tells PM she should rip up customs plan after @JGForsyth and @WikiGuido scoop: 'If this correct this is not Brexit. This common rulebook means that we are essentially a vassal state. The Prime Minister should imitate Mr Gove and tear up this paper.

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) July 5, 2018

Leave supporting Tory MP Lucy Allan: "This is not Brexit"

Jacob Rees-Mogg tells @Steven_Swinford: "If this correct this is not Brexit"

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 5, 2018

Owen Paterson: "If true, a complete breach of Theresa May's manifesto commitment, reconfirmed to me at PMQs yesterday, to leave Single Market, Customs Union & ECJ. We could not eliminate tariffs to reduce prices for consumers & businesses, or strike free trade deals."

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 5, 2018

A Whitehall source says that Dexeu considers the government's own Brexit plan unacceptable and that David Davis and others are fighting it.........

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 5, 2018

Hear Remain Cabinet ministers are now discussing threatening to resign if No10 gives any ground to unhappy Brexiteers........

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 5, 2018

If the PM backtracks on what the Conservatives put in their manifesto then Brexiteer cabinet ministers *must* resign and bring her down immediately. I've supported her even in swallowing the transition period, but this would be an absolute betrayal of what we voted for. I don't think they quite understand how angry people will be.

If I were a Tory MP I would have my letter of no confidence written and ready tonight in time to post sometime tomorrow should I need to. Given she's already so weakened, it won't take much to topple her.

Thoughts?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Here's the write up from the FT.

This is it, the moment that truly matters. The summit where Brexit policy will be finally sealed. Such hyperbolic chat is flowing through Westminster in anticipation of Friday’s cabinet meeting, where Theresa May, the prime minister, will bang heads together to produce a joint vision of an economic and trading relationship with the EU. A future relationship that pleases everyone present and has a hope of acceptance in Brussels.

Of course, Mrs May might be able to do this, securing her position for another couple of months. But she just as likely might not. Some ministers may conclude that the compromises they are being asked to make are too great and they can no longer serve in her government. The driveway at Chequers, the country mansion where the meeting will be held, is long and the threats of Brexiters to walk out have been similarly drawn out. There is a sense, however, that matters are finally reaching a crunch point.

If there are resignations, followed by a leadership challenge, the havoc would be huge. The Conservative party, the government and the negotiations would be thrown into chaos. Yet if the reports are accurate about Mrs May’s latest plans, Brexiters may decide they have no other choice. Taken together, her remoulded customs partnership, continued alignment to the single market on goods, remote adherence to the European Court of Justice and the package is a long way from Vote Leave’s vision of “taking back control”. If the true Brexit believers do not quit on principle now, it seems unlikely they ever will.

The most obvious candidate to walk out is Boris Johnson. The foreign secretary has made his displeasure about the direction of travel abundantly clear. His standing within the government has never been weaker. Installing Mr Johnson in the Foreign Office was a test to see if he could mature into a statesman. Few would say he has succeeded. Quitting the cabinet may be the only thing left he can actually do.

Then there is David Davis. Ever since senior civil servant Olly Robbins left his purview last October to conduct negotiations straight from Downing Street, the Brexit secretary’s standing has been weak. Resigning as a result of the compromises being tabled at Friday’s Chequers meeting would confirm he has lost the prime minister’s ear and he has not been in control of the talks for some time.

The other two to watch are Liam Fox and Michael Gove. The international trade secretary has kept out of the public bickering about Brexit. If Mr Fox thinks his ability to broker trade deals has been undermined, he may see little point in sticking around. The environment secretary is also being watched carefully by Brexiters. Mr Gove is now eager to ensure the UK simply gets out of the bloc. Brexit 1.0 may be a bit rubbish, in his view, but v2.0 can be much better. Were he to resign now, it would trigger a full Brexiter rebellion.

The damage inflicted on Mrs May in the event of resignations would not just be about who walks, but also the number. A lone minister quitting, even if senior, is one thing. But if two or more exit the cabinet, the prime minister would be facing a leadership challenge. If Mr Johnson and Mr Davis walk out in unison, Brexit-supporting MPs would question their faith in the prime minister. If this pair united to mount a leadership challenge, Mrs May’s fate would be uncertain.

Of course, no one may walk. Mrs May might concoct a fudge of a consistency to bind the cabinet together. Or it may be that the Brexiters blink once again and accept the reality of where negotiations with Brussels stand and about the views of the House of Commons. Time is short, however, and tough choices have to be made. If the moment of truth does not arrive on Friday, it will be in the autumn. And whenever it comes, the same question faces Brexiters: do they stay in power and argue for what they believe from the inside? Or is the internal battle lost?

[FlyingJesus]

Gonna settle it all with a nice game of draughts

[-:Undertaker:-]

Plotting tonight...

Glad to see my wing have their act together. May is skating on very thin ice.

48 letters and a leadership ballot takes place.

Source phones to say told Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey currently meeting Boris Johnson in the FCO....

... waiting for response from FCO

😐

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 5, 2018

CONFIRMED: Boris Johnson IS meeting Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove and Esther McVey...

AND Liam Fox (hat-tip @Steven_Swinford )

"Ministers often meet", said a source close to Theresa May, bravely

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 5, 2018

Tory Anger Level pic.twitter.com/X2PahiyVGG

— Global Guido (@GloboGuido) July 5, 2018

EXCLUSIVE I'm told the gathering of Eurosceptic rebels tonight at the FCO is bigger than first thought. Full cast list is Boris Johnson, David Davis, Michael Gove, Esther McVey, Penny Mordaunt and Andrea Leadsom. If I was No 10 I'd be worried...

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) July 5, 2018

Quick add to this - Liam Fox is also there. So that's SEVEN Eurosceptics drawing up their plans to eviscerate Theresa May's 'third way' - now called the 'evolved Mansion House mode'

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) July 5, 2018

[-:Undertaker:-]

That's the first and last time I vote Conservative if this stands. That utter **** sold us out.

I trusted what she had said for the last two years. What a fool I was.

This Brexit strategy is a sell-out to the global corporates, as it was during Maastricht. The Tory Eurosceptics are a waste of space.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) July 6, 2018

Brexit did not mean keeping the 90% of our economy that does not export to the EU trapped by their laws.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) July 6, 2018

No resignations means that the so-called Brexiteers in cabinet don't have a principle between them, career politicians all.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) July 6, 2018

Senior ERG MP: “This looks like a total betrayal from both No10 and the Cabinet. We will be total rule takers and our ability to strike trade deals will be severely hampered. Cabinet Brexiters promised us they would fight this. If what Number 10 says is true, this is not Brexit.”

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 6, 2018

EXCLUSIVE Theresa May to meet her entire Parliamentary party on Monday evening in the House of Commons for what is likely to be be the mother of all showdowns on Brexit. This will be big.

— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) July 6, 2018

The Cabinet Brexiteers may have capitulated but backbenchers tell me they will vote this deal down.

— Julia Hartley-Brewer (@JuliaHB1) July 6, 2018

I hate to say this, but Brexiters would be right to reject PM’s plan. Dual EU/UK tariffs would create vast red tape, smugglers would boom,Parliament would be humiliated. MPs would rubber stamp goods/agri rules from Brussels - right to refuse would never be used as costs too high.

— Nick Clegg (@nickclegg) July 6, 2018

Social media full of Conservative members cutting up their cards, and Tory voters saying never again. I don't think the politicians understand what they're doing by selling us out - because I am now prepared, if this holds, to vote for an extreme party if need be to bring about what we voted for because that clearly is the only way we'll get it. And don't think I am the only one. Our politicians are scum of the earth. If it comes to it, i'll vote for Corbyn's Labour to get these traitors out of office.

I'll give them a week. If Tory back benchers don't throw this hag out then they're completely useless and we then go on to the next stage of a new anti-establishment party and fight this to the very end because we're not going away. Ever.

[dbgtz]

it will be rejected anyway

[-:Undertaker:-]

it will be rejected anyway

Indeed, and hopefully. I considered myself a pragmatic Leaver in that I wanted a sensible deal between the UK and EU but now in light of this I find myself wanting no deal and just WTO terms. It looks like MPs could be starting to move against her now...

Andrew Bridgen: "(Theresa May's EU deal) is probably worse than staying in the European Union."

He's waiting until Monday night to decide whether of putting in a letter of no confidence to the 1922

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 8, 2018

NEW @conhome snap survey: 60 per cent of Conservative Party members think May’s Chequers plan is a bad deal, and do not support it. https://t.co/jp9GZ3vAW8

— Mark Wallace (@wallaceme) July 8, 2018

Not the only one... https://t.co/iNJWn9Aimc

— Global Guido (@GloboGuido) July 8, 2018

Sources confirm letters calling for vote of confidence in @theresa_may leadership going in to @Graham__Brady, chair of 1922. Tory Brexiters very unhappy - accuse PM of traducing those who voted to leave EU. This appears to be spontaneous, not coralled by ERG & @Jacob_Rees_Mogg

— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 8, 2018

No10 not through it yet. Tory MPs with Leave voting constituencies raising concerns they will lose their seats in the event of ‘BRINO’. Pointing to yesterday’s @Change_Britain poll and today’s Mail splash. Lot of talk of letters going in now.

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 7, 2018

And already...

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (+2)
CON: 38% (-3)
LDEM: 10% (+3)

via @Survation, 07 Jul

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 7, 2018

[-:Undertaker:-]

Chequers has revived Ukip meaning Corbyn is heading for Number 10 on these figures.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (-)
CON: 36% (-6)
UKIP: 8% (+5)

via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs w/ 07 Jun

Awaiting figures for Lib Dems and Greens...

Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general electionhttps://t.co/7xjptuCv9D

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 14, 2018

🚨 Just look at this text from a Brexiteer Tory MP for a sense of how bad things are... https://t.co/E5vd7aaJre pic.twitter.com/Bq2YM2TQVO

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) July 14, 2018

The #ChequersPlan is less popular now (17% would be happy with Chequers as final outcome - YouGov 10-11 2018) than the Iraq War was in 2015.

That's kind of impressive. pic.twitter.com/PFrFhCTpRX

— Chris Rowland (@chrisrowlanduk) July 12, 2018

Even worse for the Tories is this - not only is Ukip reviving, but on the back of a potent anger when Britain is out of the EU but *still* copying EU law, being ruled by its judges and wide open borders - reaching those voters ever again will be very hard if not impossible. What the PM is basically doing here is creating the conditions for a huge backlash, the likes of which we only see on the continent in the likes of Italy, France and Austria with insurgent parties.