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  1. #1
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    Default No Deal Brexit advances closer tonight with ERG amendments victory

    No Deal Brexit advances closer tonight with ERG amendments victory

    Prime Minister's Chequers Deal is all but dead as Parliament finds itself locked on Brexit



    Summary of this evening

    I'll try and explain tonight quickly. Basically, the ERG group within the Tory Party put forward four amendments which basically makes the Chequers Deal impossible from a legal standpoint and binds the government. Today, government whips decided to back the ERG (effectively admitting defeat) and all four amendments passed this evening in what has been a poisonous sitting as the process turns ever more toxic.

    As a consequence, the 'backstop' agreed between the UK and EU (which I said at the time was a disgrace) that would keep Northern Ireland in the EU Customs Union in the event of no customs solution being found, is now finished. In that sense, progress on negotiations is now reversed to back before December. This means that Ulster can now *not* be separated from the rest of the kingdom in terms of customs. A superb victory for the DUP and eurosceptics.

    So, what now and why is No Deal now looming ever closer?

    As a consequence, ultra-remainer Tory MPs are now saying they will not back the PMs Chequers agreement - effectively signalling that they know it is also dead in the water. It also means that at this point, Parliament is effectively paralysed with no parliamentary majority for any outcome in the negotiations. It really is hard to see a way forward out of this as even a General Election would not solve anything, indeed on recent polling would make things worse.

    That now means with Parliament deadlocked, the EU's red line of the Ireland backstop crossed out - of which the EU will not negotiate unless it is there, we're heading towards No Deal on the 29th March 2019.

    My own thoughts

    I had always advocated that we come to a deal with the EU as I am quite pragmatic and that things should be done amicably. But as of the past two weeks, my view has changed. Given the constant blocking/attempts to overturn what we voted for by ultra remainers in Parliament as well as the EU demanding unacceptable terms and the Civil Service conspiring against the people, I now favour No Deal. Initially I was even prepared to swallow the (bad) transitional arrangement in the event we reached our final destination with a final deal, but ultra remainers simply will not compromise and even that transition is now in tatters thanks to their work.

    I am going to toot my own horn here and say that when Article 50 was first activated, many on my side said not to as A50 gave the EU the upper hand in that it is a irrevocable countdown. I said at the time however that this could work in our favour in the end as, if the whole process were to grind to a halt - as it now has - then Britain's departure would still happen as a legal fact no matter what. Yet again some good foresight on my part!



    Roll on the 29th March 2019 when our departure, in No Deal territory, will be total and complete.


    Tweets from this evening


    Thoughts?
    Last edited by -:Undertaker:-; 16-07-2018 at 11:23 PM.
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    What comes first? Brexit Day or the government's collapse?
    Remainers fighting back today with customs union amendment.

    I logged in specially just to say this as I don't really know anyone who's been following it to discuss these things with. Hey everybody.
    Likes -:Undertaker:- liked this post

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    big problem with a no deal is we have no deal with anyone on anything which is really why we need a transition period at the very least
    need to sort that aviation, nuclear etc. not just crash out with nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Inseriousity. View Post
    What comes first? Brexit Day or the government's collapse?
    Remainers fighting back today with customs union amendment.

    I logged in specially just to say this as I don't really know anyone who's been following it to discuss these things with. Hey everybody.
    government collapse hopefully and with a long enough time to at least put brexit on pause because jesus shit this is a shit show
    hello

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    Tory remainers fail (just) in their bid to keep the UK in a Customs Union with the EU in the event of No Deal.

    The government very nearly collapsed tonight.

    And love this... Major in my eyes couldn't sink any lower than he just has.

    Last edited by -:Undertaker:-; 17-07-2018 at 06:57 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz View Post
    big problem with a no deal is we have no deal with anyone on anything which is really why we need a transition period at the very least
    need to sort that aviation, nuclear etc. not just crash out with nothing

    government collapse hopefully and with a long enough time to at least put brexit on pause because jesus shit this is a shit show
    hello
    I think part of the problem is that there are a lot of parliamentarians who want to "put brexit on pause" indefinitely by tying the government up in knots. I say part of the problem because this government has definitely made a shit show of these negotiations. May built up a reputation as a steely strong-willed character in the Home Office but seems incapable of saying boo to a goose with the various factions in the House.

    Personally, I don't think we should have triggered Article 50 so soon. It should've spent that little extra time to do more No Deal planning. Brexit department focused on negotiating the deal but every single other department preparing full steam ahead for No Deal scenario. Publishing two white papers for what Brexit deal we want as well as a No Deal white paper for what we'll do if we don't get a good Brexit deal. I still believe Brexit can be a success and the fundamental principles for why I voted Leave but the government is definitely in a mess of its own making here. Can't wait to read the book lol
    Likes -:Undertaker:- liked this post

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    What has made me laugh throughout this whole process is ultra-remainers such as Tony Blair, Sir John Major, Gina Miller, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Dominic Grieve etc all claiming initially that they just want to follow process, then the next thing they start demanding we stay part of this bit of the EU, that bit of the EU despite the manifesto they all stood on and NOW they're all coming out the woodwork demanding a second referendum on it - which shows all along they never respected our vote in the slightest.

    I am curious though as to what they actually think would happen if they managed to block or reverse Brexit. Because as history has shown countless times, when the ballot box fails and the mainstream fails then people turn to the extremes along with bombs and bullets. They are playing with fire - I know in that scenario I would support anything to get our independence & democracy back.
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    Likes Inseriousity. liked this post

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    Quote Originally Posted by Inseriousity. View Post
    I think part of the problem is that there are a lot of parliamentarians who want to "put brexit on pause" indefinitely by tying the government up in knots. I say part of the problem because this government has definitely made a shit show of these negotiations. May built up a reputation as a steely strong-willed character in the Home Office but seems incapable of saying boo to a goose with the various factions in the House.
    I don't disagree, but it is the same on both sides

    Personally, I don't think we should have triggered Article 50 so soon. It should've spent that little extra time to do more No Deal planning. Brexit department focused on negotiating the deal but every single other department preparing full steam ahead for No Deal scenario. Publishing two white papers for what Brexit deal we want as well as a No Deal white paper for what we'll do if we don't get a good Brexit deal. I still believe Brexit can be a success and the fundamental principles for why I voted Leave but the government is definitely in a mess of its own making here. Can't wait to read the book lol
    should've actually done planning and been transparent about it and the planning should've been done before the ref akin to the scottish independence white paper

    brexit is not going to be a success and i cant believe were going to waste 15 years on this when something far more productive could have been done all because of a bunch of opportunist tories (dc, bojo, gove etc)

    Quote Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:- View Post
    What has made me laugh throughout this whole process is ultra-remainers such as Tony Blair, Sir John Major, Gina Miller, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Dominic Grieve etc all claiming initially that they just want to follow process, then the next thing they start demanding we stay part of this bit of the EU, that bit of the EU despite the manifesto they all stood on and NOW they're all coming out the woodwork demanding a second referendum on it - which shows all along they never respected our vote in the slightest.
    a second referendum because vote leave just got fined for massively overspending?
    dont see you posting about that lmao

    also you say this but ignore norway, theyre rich, theyre happy! but the moment they win its like HARD BREXIT ONLY NOBODY MENTIONED EEA
    jesus

    I am curious though as to what they actually think would happen if they managed to block or reverse Brexit. Because as history has shown countless times, when the ballot box fails and the mainstream fails then people turn to the extremes along with bombs and bullets. They are playing with fire - I know in that scenario I would support anything to get our independence & democracy back.
    already happening in ni who technically didnt vote in favour of it (which you still failed to give any possible solution for, nice)
    its funny because you complain about the "remoaners" yet at least theyre being peaceful about it and not threatening to blow shit up
    but by this logic i hope to see all remainer areas take arms and cause havoc and destruction
    Last edited by dbgtz; 17-07-2018 at 07:28 PM.

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    That like was for the first paragraph not the second, which is just bonkers lol.

    I noticed that the calls for a second referendum are with 3 options, 2 leave and 1 stay, to split the leave vote. They're not even subtle about trying to reverse Brexit lol.

    I don't think there would be violence, just more disillusionment. I'm not sure why you would be willing to support terrorism.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    a second referendum because vote leave just got fined for massively overspending?
    dont see you posting about that lmao



    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    also you say this but ignore norway, theyre rich, theyre happy! but the moment they win its like HARD BREXIT ONLY NOBODY MENTIONED EEA
    jesus
    You lot all ruled out the EEA when you campaigned to stay in the EU. Had you been against political union, but for economic union, then you would've voted Leave and advocated EEA - and possibly have won. But you were so ****-sure you'd win you tried to make us swallow the entire thing and you lost big time, despite overspending our side massively and having all the establishment onside.

    The massive tantrum ever since by elites used to winning all the time has been truly pathetic.

    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    already happening in ni who technically didnt vote in favour of it (which you still failed to give any possible solution for, nice)
    its funny because you complain about the "remoaners" yet at least theyre being peaceful about it and not threatening to blow shit up
    but by this logic i hope to see all remainer areas take arms and cause havoc and destruction
    I have given a solution to Northern Ireland. Told you this before, install border checkpoints like any other border in the world.
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    So those amendments the ERG put in are already having an effect in regards to the backstop and the province.

    The backstop, which the EU demanded, is dead - making No Deal increasingly likely now. Good stuff! If the EU rejects Chequers, which seems likely, the PM has absolutely nowhere to slide backwards to accommodate them, meaning we leave entirely in March 2019.

    All this assumes even if the EU agreed to Chequers, that it would pass Parliament anyway - MPs on both sides have already said No.



    Last edited by -:Undertaker:-; 19-07-2018 at 09:43 PM.
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