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Thread: Brexit Deal

  1. #11
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    It would be NICE of us to do so and I hope things do get sorted without having to put up a load of expensive and unsettling control points, but the onus isn't on us to make sure someone else's ideals are satisfied, only our own. The EU plans that would effectively mean Northern Ireland will be part of the EU and we can't trade with ourselves are ridiculous, and if they're going to make such demands then it's really just insulting to the entire process of negotiation
    Last edited by FlyingJesus; 18-10-2018 at 08:59 PM.
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  2. #12
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    I agree with everything Tom wrote there about the border question.

    And just to clarify, I wasn't some sort of headbanger who was demanding Brexit-this-second from day one. Throughout this process, I have advocated a Canada+++ FTA with the European Union. I even swallowed the transition period if that helped us reach that destination sensibly. I had red lines, but was open to co-operation on terrorism, security, aviation and so on. But the total opposite has happened - the EU is basically demanding the annexation of a part of our kingdom, or demanding the entire kingdom stay subject to it's customs duties and courts. It's intolerable. That's why I am now backing assuming that No Deal is what we're heading for, and that we prepare for that - if the EU wish to come back to the table to discuss an FTA then we'll leave the door open for that.

    ITV's Robert Peston has written this on the situation tonight.

    If the PM decided to cave-in on a Customs Union, it is hard to see how that would pass the House of Commons either. The Tory rebellion would be huge (over 100+) the DUP won't do it and Labour would jump on the opportunity to vote down the government and cause it's possible collapse.

    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Peston, ITV News
    Hello from Brussels and the EU Council that promised a Brexit breakthrough and delivered nothing.

    So on the basis of conversations with well placed sources, this is how I think the Brexit talks are placed (WARNING: if you are fearful of a no-deal Brexit, or are of a nervous disposition, stop reading now).

    1) Forget about having any clue when we leave about the nature and structure of the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU. The government heads of the EU27 have rejected Chequers. Wholesale. And they regard it as far too late to put in place the building blocks of that future relationship before we leave on 29 March 2019. So any Political Declaration on the future relationship will be waffly, vague and general. It will be what so many MPs detest: a blind Brexit. The PM may say that won’t happen. No one here (except perhaps her own Downing St team) believes her.

    2) The earliest date for a deal on Brexit terms - that vacuous Political Declaration and the Withdrawal Agreement - is now the Council in mid December. But even that date may prove too challenging.

    3) The gulf between the EU27 and May, as you know, is over how to keep open the Northern Ireland border. There is no chance of the EU abandoning its insistence that there should be a backstop - with no expiry date - of Northern Ireland, but not Great Britain, remaining in the Customs Union and the single market. That would involve the introduction of the commercial border in the Irish Sea that May says must never be drawn.

    4) All efforts therefore from the UK are aimed at putting in place other arrangements to make it impossible for that backstop to be introduced.

    5) Her ruse for doing this is the creation of another backstop that would involve the whole of the UK staying in something that looks like the customs union.

    6) But she feels cannot commit to keeping the UK in the customs union forever, because her Brexiter MPs won’t let her. So it does not work as a backstop. And anyway the Article 50 rules say that the Withdrawal Agreement must not contain provisions for a permanent trading relationship between the whole of the UK and the EU. Which is a hideous Catch 22.

    7) There is a solution. She could ignore her Brexiter critics and announce the UK wanted written into the Political Declaration - as opposed to the Withdrawal Agreement - that we would be staying permanently in the customs union. This is one bit of specificity the rest of the EU would allow into the Political Declaration. And it could be nodded at in the Withdrawal Agreement.

    8) But if she announces we are staying in the Customs Union she would be crossing her reddest of red lines because she would have to abandon her ambition of negotiating free trade deals with non-EU countries. Liam Fox would be made redundant.

    9) She knows, because her Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins has told her, that her best chance - probably her only chance of securing a Brexit deal - is to sign up for the customs union.

    10) In its absence, no-deal Brexit is massively in play.

    11) But a customs-union Brexit deal would see her Brexiter MPs become incandescent with fury.

    12) Labour of course would be on the spot, since its one practical Brexit policy is to stay in the Customs Union.

    13) This therefore is May’s Robert Peel moment. She could agree a Customs Union Brexit and get it through Parliament with Labour support - while simultaneously cleaving her own party in two.

    14) It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal.

    15) Which will May choose? Ultimately this is her choice, and hers alone. It is her moment in history.

    162 days to go until Article 50, and Britain's EU membership, expire.



  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingJesus View Post
    It would be NICE of us to do so and I hope things do get sorted without having to put up a load of expensive and unsettling control points, but the onus isn't on us to make sure someone else's ideals are satisfied, only our own. The EU plans that would effectively mean Northern Ireland will be part of the EU and we can't trade with ourselves are ridiculous, and if they're going to make such demands then it's really just insulting to the entire process of negotiation
    I'm genuinely in disbelief you actually view it like this. We literally agreed to keeping the border as is. You cannot simply dump the problem on the other party and somehow claim that it's somehow on them to sort out. All this ignoring that without an agreement, we will have policing and all sorts set up as precaution to anything breaking out anyway.

    If the UK could figure out a workable solution for all parties involved on this issue, then the EU would have no problem with NI being on par with rUK, but the only actual other solution is for Ireland to also leave (which laughably some extreme Eurosceptics have actually suggested). No brexit supporter is actually capable of suggesting anything which can actually work (see Undertaker simply saying "work out the technological solutions" as if that's an actual suggestion).

    Quote Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:- View Post
    I agree with everything Tom wrote there about the border question.

    And just to clarify, I wasn't some sort of headbanger who was demanding Brexit-this-second from day one. Throughout this process, I have advocated a Canada+++ FTA with the European Union. I even swallowed the transition period if that helped us reach that destination sensibly. I had red lines, but was open to co-operation on terrorism, security, aviation and so on. But the total opposite has happened - the EU is basically demanding the annexation of a part of our kingdom, or demanding the entire kingdom stay subject to it's customs duties and courts. It's intolerable. That's why I am now backing assuming that No Deal is what we're heading for, and that we prepare for that - if the EU wish to come back to the table to discuss an FTA then we'll leave the door open for that.
    So what actually is a Canada+++ deal to you exactly? I see this thrown around but nobody actually clarifies what this entails. I also never saw this mentioned pre-referendum funnily enough.

    You do realise whatever deal comes out of this, provided the big players stay, the EU is always going to have far more influence over things than us (which effectively can mean smaller states having more influence than us)? You can see just how widespread EU policy actually goes. GDPR is a very good example of this. I can't remember what this is called exactly, but I never really considered this until somewhat recently and just highlights how poor the whole "taking back control" argument is.

    I think the problem is you care more about the country as an idea rather than the people as individuals.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz View Post
    I'm genuinely in disbelief you actually view it like this. We literally agreed to keeping the border as is. You cannot simply dump the problem on the other party and somehow claim that it's somehow on them to sort out. All this ignoring that without an agreement, we will have policing and all sorts set up as precaution to anything breaking out anyway.

    If the UK could figure out a workable solution for all parties involved on this issue, then the EU would have no problem with NI being on par with rUK, but the only actual other solution is for Ireland to also leave (which laughably some extreme Eurosceptics have actually suggested). No brexit supporter is actually capable of suggesting anything which can actually work (see Undertaker simply saying "work out the technological solutions" as if that's an actual suggestion).
    If the EU agreed to what is called 'Mutual recognition' within a Free Trade Agreement, then it would mean Britain being separate in terms of all laws and regulations but the EU recognising our standards and vice versa. This would be the solution to the issue. The problem is, the EU being a protectionist/anti-free trade body, does not want to do this - it fears British competitiveness undercutting EU industries. So the onus is on the European Union and the Republic of Ireland: it is EU created rules and principles we cannot possibly accept that they are demanding, not something that is somehow a universal fact in international politics.

    For you to side with the European Union, actively seeking to either carve our kingdom into two parts or keep our entire kingdom subservient to European Union law without a say, is jaw dropping. That you'd side with a hostile organisation protecting it's own interests and political aims over your own country trying to protect our own interests and principles I just find incomprehensible. Your concern as a British subject should be the interests and unity of this realm, not that of the Irish Republic and EU. Realpolitik.

    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    So what actually is a Canada+++ deal to you exactly? I see this thrown around but nobody actually clarifies what this entails. I also never saw this mentioned pre-referendum funnily enough.
    A Canada+++ FTA is an FTA based on the Canadian model of high standards of mutual recognition of regulations/standards, with lower tariffs. The plus part is the recognition that Britain and the EU could continue in joint-programs such as anti-terrorism, Erasmus and so on - provided the ECJ is not the arbiter in any dispute mechanism. In summary, a high-grade FTA with additional co-operation in joint agencies. Now this is what we should be going for - but the EU says it will only accept this applying to Great Britain and not Northern Ireland.

    Which as a result means we should now head to No Deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    You do realise whatever deal comes out of this, provided the big players stay, the EU is always going to have far more influence over things than us (which effectively can mean smaller states having more influence than us)? You can see just how widespread EU policy actually goes. GDPR is a very good example of this. I can't remember what this is called exactly, but I never really considered this until somewhat recently and just highlights how poor the whole "taking back control" argument is.

    I think the problem is you care more about the country as an idea rather than the people as individuals.
    Well what you've just admitted to me here is what we've said all along but which you all denied, which is that the scope and influence of the European Union and it's body of law have infested this country like a rampant Japanese knotwood, to a degree many did not realise - and that we have been deeply embedded in this embryonic superstate.

    To which my answer simply is, thank god we've extracting ourselves now before this Devil's Snare is wrapped around our throat.
    Last edited by -:Undertaker:-; 19-10-2018 at 09:49 PM.



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    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz View Post
    I'm genuinely in disbelief you actually view it like this. We literally agreed to keeping the border as is.
    Which means not doing anything lol. Shockingly, if you change things that means it's NOT the same.

    Not sure why you think it's laughable to make Ireland leave the EU but 100% perfect planning to force NI to leave Britain and join the EU. Neither of those are good plans at all
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  6. #16
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    Increasing talk from Westminster that David Davis is being lined up as a 'caretaker' PM to steer through Brexit. Unlike Boris, Davis is more popular among both wings of the party and also had more credit with Labour MPs. His article in the Sunday Mail this weekend does suggest a leadership bid.

    If Davis and Boris can work out a joint-ticket, meaning no contest, then it makes it more likely the PM will be removed. There's a 1922 meeting this Wednesday and there's demands the PM shows up, with one MP saying "bring your own noose". We'll see what happens this week. It's worth remembering that she has only lasted this long because of the lack of an obvious successor - if this is changing then things could move very quickly.

    As a Tory member, I feel she has run out of road. Time to make the move.



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    Quote Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:- View Post
    If the EU agreed to what is called 'Mutual recognition' within a Free Trade Agreement, then it would mean Britain being separate in terms of all laws and regulations but the EU recognising our standards and vice versa. This would be the solution to the issue. The problem is, the EU being a protectionist/anti-free trade body, does not want to do this - it fears British competitiveness undercutting EU industries. So the onus is on the European Union and the Republic of Ireland: it is EU created rules and principles we cannot possibly accept that they are demanding, not something that is somehow a universal fact in international politics.
    What you've actually just said is the EU wouldn't want that because the UK would lower regulation standards and become some kind of back door for poorly regulated goods. No shit it wouldn't want that lmao
    But if that was the solution then why has it never been mentioned?

    For you to side with the European Union, actively seeking to either carve our kingdom into two parts or keep our entire kingdom subservient to European Union law without a say, is jaw dropping. That you'd side with a hostile organisation protecting it's own interests and political aims over your own country trying to protect our own interests and principles I just find incomprehensible. Your concern as a British subject should be the interests and unity of this realm, not that of the Irish Republic and EU. Realpolitik.
    Christ that second to last sentence really put a bad taste in my mouth. I'm an individual who is allowed their own thoughts, I should not have to default to supporting something I have no desire to support because I happened to be born in some place. You're borderline telling me how to think. I never even said I supported the deal, just that people like you are so against it but can't suggest anything else that could actually work.

    Well what you've just admitted to me here is what we've said all along but which you all denied, which is that the scope and influence of the European Union and it's body of law have infested this country like a rampant Japanese knotwood, to a degree many did not realise - and that we have been deeply embedded in this embryonic superstate.

    To which my answer simply is, thank god we've extracting ourselves now before this Devil's Snare is wrapped around our throat.
    That's not what I said at all, you've literally just put words in my mouth to suit your own agenda. What I said is EU laws are extremely influential (similar to California & rUSA) and that they will always have more influence than us as a 3rd party. This is most likely the "mid eurosceptics" (ie the reform from within) want to remain in, because a lot of EU legislation will likely affect us anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingJesus View Post
    Which means not doing anything lol. Shockingly, if you change things that means it's NOT the same.

    Not sure why you think it's laughable to make Ireland leave the EU but 100% perfect planning to force NI to leave Britain and join the EU. Neither of those are good plans at all
    NI = part of UK
    ROI = independent nation

    we cannot force an independent nation to do something it does not want to do, that is why it's laughable
    also some suggestions that ROI should join the UK, which is also laughable

    they're also not forcing anything, we chose to leave and they propose a solution

    Quote Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:- View Post
    Increasing talk from Westminster that David Davis is being lined up as a 'caretaker' PM to steer through Brexit. Unlike Boris, Davis is more popular among both wings of the party and also had more credit with Labour MPs. His article in the Sunday Mail this weekend does suggest a leadership bid.

    If Davis and Boris can work out a joint-ticket, meaning no contest, then it makes it more likely the PM will be removed. There's a 1922 meeting this Wednesday and there's demands the PM shows up, with one MP saying "bring your own noose". We'll see what happens this week. It's worth remembering that she has only lasted this long because of the lack of an obvious successor - if this is changing then things could move very quickly.

    As a Tory member, I feel she has run out of road. Time to make the move.
    Cool, let's get the guy who did nothing for 2 years as Brexit secretary to run the country in some dodgy back door deals to prop up some self serving charlatans. How democratic

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    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz View Post
    What you've actually just said is the EU wouldn't want that because the UK would lower regulation standards and become some kind of back door for poorly regulated goods. No shit it wouldn't want that lmao
    But if that was the solution then why has it never been mentioned?
    You seem to be under the impression that European Union standards and regulations are there for a valid reason, and that anything that deviates from them is somehow poorly regulated. Let's take food for example - EU regulations, the CAP, is a barrier to non-EU food products no doubt under the guise of safety and the rest of it. But we all know it is purposely highly-regulated in order to protect French farmers from outside competition, a price that means the European continent pays more for its food than it has to.

    Britain would understandably wish to open ourselves up to cheaper markets in food and other areas, while the EU will not. In doing so, we'd risk upsetting their protectionist apple cart in that we'd be importing raw materials cheaper and thus being able to undercut them. That is *their problem* and a fault of their muddled and backwards thinking, not ours. This has all been mentioned before, but the EU rules it out as it fears an actual competitor on its doorstep. So like I say, if that's the case then let's go for No Deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    Christ that second to last sentence really put a bad taste in my mouth. I'm an individual who is allowed their own thoughts, I should not have to default to supporting something I have no desire to support because I happened to be born in some place. You're borderline telling me how to think. I never even said I supported the deal, just that people like you are so against it but can't suggest anything else that could actually work.
    I'm asking you to justify how you think - how on EARTH can you think slicing your country in two on the demand of a hostile foreign power is in anyway acceptable? This is *our* country - you and me, not their country as the referendum made clear.

    That's not what I said at all, you've literally just put words in my mouth to suit your own agenda. What I said is EU laws are extremely influential (similar to California & rUSA) and that they will always have more influence than us as a 3rd party. This is most likely the "mid eurosceptics" (ie the reform from within) want to remain in, because a lot of EU legislation will likely affect us anyway.
    Reform from within - what reforms did the UK ever secure and how did David Cameron's reforms go?

    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    NI = part of UK
    ROI = independent nation

    we cannot force an independent nation to do something it does not want to do, that is why it's laughable
    also some suggestions that ROI should join the UK, which is also laughable

    they're also not forcing anything, we chose to leave and they propose a solution
    Forcing an independent nation to do something it does not want to do - ah yes, like the EU is attempting to force us into slicing Northern Ireland away from us or accepting their continued rule without a say, like a sort of vassal state. It's remarkable a paragraph or two above you wouldn't even defend your own country from this, yet here you are defending the sovereignty of the Irish Republic.

    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz
    Cool, let's get the guy who did nothing for 2 years as Brexit secretary to run the country in some dodgy back door deals to prop up some self serving charlatans. How democratic
    Mr Davis is an elected MP part of an elected British government, so yes - very democratic.

    When exactly did we elect Mr Barnier, Mr Tusk and Mr Varadkar? I must have been asleep.



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    Quote Originally Posted by dbgtz View Post
    NI = part of UK
    ROI = independent nation

    we cannot force an independent nation to do something it does not want to do, that is why it's laughable
    UK = independent nation

    The EU cannot force an independent nation to do something it does not want to do, that is why trying to slice up the UK is laughable. It's not a solution (to a problem they have), it's an aggressive insult that smacks of divide and conquer empire building
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    Quote Originally Posted by -:Undertaker:- View Post
    You seem to be under the impression that European Union standards and regulations are there for a valid reason, and that anything that deviates from them is somehow poorly regulated. Let's take food for example - EU regulations, the CAP, is a barrier to non-EU food products no doubt under the guise of safety and the rest of it. But we all know it is purposely highly-regulated in order to protect French farmers from outside competition, a price that means the European continent pays more for its food than it has to.

    Britain would understandably wish to open ourselves up to cheaper markets in food and other areas, while the EU will not. In doing so, we'd risk upsetting their protectionist apple cart in that we'd be importing raw materials cheaper and thus being able to undercut them. That is *their problem* and a fault of their muddled and backwards thinking, not ours. This has all been mentioned before, but the EU rules it out as it fears an actual competitor on its doorstep. So like I say, if that's the case then let's go for No Deal.
    Didn't you just argue that being out of the EU means that wages will go up for UK farmers, fruit pickers and the such (jobs typically fulfilled by migrants) but now you're basically saying we're going to be suggested by cheap food from elsewhere which would actually put these people out of a job? Which is it you're hoping for exactly? To me it sounds like you're hoping a bunch of our farms get bankrupted, which to me sounds like a terrible idea to be even more reliant on food imports than we already are.

    I also didn't know the CAP and food regulations were specifically designed to protect French farmers, got evidence for that? What regulations to you presume to be part of this conspiracy exactly? The ones that banned a potential carcogenic to be poured over apples until proven safe? The ones where you have to label allergens? Or the ones where you can't abuse the animals involved? Do enlighten me as to what exactly you are hoping our government disposes of.

    I'm asking you to justify how you think - how on EARTH can you think slicing your country in two on the demand of a hostile foreign power is in anyway acceptable? This is *our* country - you and me, not their country as the referendum made clear.
    eh read my last sentence in what you just replied to
    if I were Irish though I could say that the British split Ireland to begin with

    Reform from within - what reforms did the UK ever secure and how did David Cameron's reforms go?
    I never voted Conservative?

    Forcing an independent nation to do something it does not want to do - ah yes, like the EU is attempting to force us into slicing Northern Ireland away from us or accepting their continued rule without a say, like a sort of vassal state. It's remarkable a paragraph or two above you wouldn't even defend your own country from this, yet here you are defending the sovereignty of the Irish Republic.
    They're not forcing anything. Suggest a workable solution and they would be happy to do it

    Mr Davis is an elected MP part of an elected British government, so yes - very democratic.

    When exactly did we elect Mr Barnier, Mr Tusk and Mr Varadkar? I must have been asleep.
    When did I vote David Davies exactly? I could turn this back into another "our system is shit" but that'll just go in circles.

    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingJesus View Post
    UK = independent nation

    The EU cannot force an independent nation to do something it does not want to do, that is why trying to slice up the UK is laughable. It's not a solution (to a problem they have), it's an aggressive insult that smacks of divide and conquer empire building
    Except they haven't forced us to do anything so your point falls flat. I really can't understand how you see our shared border as solely their problem.

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