Brexit Party surges in polls to 27% - just days after launch

[-:Undertaker:-]

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-an...-real-11695821

Brexit Party surging

As Farage launches his new party, it now tops a YouGov Poll for the European Elections

I spent Saturday with Nigel Farage. I suspect it's not a prospect some of you might relish.

But for those who can think of little else more fun, I can alas confirm it wasn't a night on the tiles, puffing, supping and fulminating away, but instead a chance to hear him speak to thousands, in my home city of Birmingham, without so much as half an ale in sight.

Only the second event of his new Brexit Party in the second city.

He was electric.

But this was a bit different, and some of the people were different: couples, families, younger voters too. An odd coalition of the curious and the angry, those who rightly or wrongly deeply feel that democracy has been subverted. They all took a Brexit Party placard home. I watched them each take one and leave enthused, clear what they are fighting for.

Initially I had thought that shorn of UKIP and its organisational spine, Farage might struggle. Instead, I came to see it as his biggest advantage yet.

UKIP, to some, to many, always had unsavoury connotations. This new party is a blanker slate - a potentially better vehicle for his ambition. It explains why Farage barely mentioned immigration and didn't talk about Europe as much as you'd think. Instead, his message was one of political transformation. Of fulfilling the true potential of the 2016 revolt. Of draining the swamp; that the failure to implement the referendum proves why it was necessary in the first place.

His is now a simpler and broader message - that Britain has been humiliated, that Westminster is rotten, that the system is rigged, that parliament doesn't represent you and it is only he who can do something about it and make us proud again. For Nigel Farage - this Dulwich school boy, denizen of the political scene for decades - is doing something.

Under his opponents' noses, he is seizing the change mantle, even from those with the word in their name. As a result, in many Euro polls he has already overtaken his old party UKIP and is snapping at the heels of the Tories. If the cards fall right, the simplicity and power of his vision, his branding and operation could mean he ends up in a position with the Leave vote much to himself.

And as I sat there, watching Farage play old tunes and new, I kept asking myself, where is the Remain equivalent of this?

For months it has been obvious that these EU elections would come - it is why Farage registered his new party months ago - yet there seems to have been little action from the other side. Where are the rallies? Where is the cross party agreement on a joint remain ticket? Where are the posters? The agreed messaging? The corralling of the newly empowered pro-European demos in this country? The targeting of EU citizens with a vote?

All seems sleepy and quiet. It is almost as if these elections have taken them by surprise.

I suspect that is because the People's Vote campaign has absorbed the creative and political energies of the Remain cause. That enterprise has not been without profit; it has gone from pipe dream to realistic prospect in little to no time at all. But its success, whilst impressive, has come at a cost. Remainers, so obsessed with the project to legitimise the idea of another referendum, have ignored a landmine which could scuttle all their hopes.

Consider for a moment if Nigel Farage's Brexit party wins the European elections.

It will matter not if it's by half a hair, on half an eyebrow; it will not matter if Remain parties outnumber him in the total vote. Should he take a party which existed not a few months ago called "the Brexit party" to victory in a national election - a feat Farage will have achieved twice - then the prospect of another plebiscite will be zero. It will terrify any Tories thinking of committing and potentially scare Labour into finally making a deal. All the momentum the People's Vote campaign has generated will be neutralised. If he comes second to Labour, it could have much the same effect.

Remainers point me to the march, to the petition, but the truth is, marches don't change anything and nor do names on a page - it is elections which have consequences. Farage understands this only too well.

When I asked him why he thinks he will be successful and his opponents will fail, he replied, with a smile: "Because I know how to butter my own bread. I've done this before." And while Farage marches, the Remainers' great hope - the Tiggers or Change UK - might lead their cause to burn.

They have ambitions beyond what they can possibly be expected to achieve. For if they are anything, if there is any purpose, they should be the Remain party - and that is what they should have been called. It would have been clear and it could have persuaded those who usually vote for another party to lend them their votes this time. That they weren't speaks to the loftiness of their objectives; they see themselves not solely through the prism of Brexit but with a vaguer desire to change politics more broadly.

It is why they also - despite I'm told, entreaties from Vince Cable and the Liberal Democrats - have refused to stand on a joint Remain ticket with other parties. Their sole aim is not just opposing Brexit but to establish themselves as an electoral force for the future. But they need to get real; they are not going to displace the Labour Party nor the Conservatives.

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CHUK: 6%

via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Apr

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 17, 2019

Wait, I think I've heard this story before ... circa 2013-14. What a total car-crash this is. Brexit has become a textbook case in how NOT to reply to populism. Instead of resolving it, we've put it on steroids. Congratulations British politics.

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 17, 2019

We're being forced to take part in European Parliamentary elections over 3 years after we voted to Leave. Like in 2014 when Ukip won the European Elections (first party since 1901 other than the main two to win a national election) forced the Conservatives to hold a EU referendum, it is now time to show we are going nowhere and give the political elite who are ignoring our vote another hiding.

He's back. And like him or not, he knows how to campaign and effect change.

Thoughts?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Continuity-remainers have now handed us another opportunity to prove what a European Election, General Election and a referendum have already proven - that Britain wants to Leave the EU. How many more times do they want us to vote on it until they get it into their arrogant, thick skulls and **** listen to what the public instructed them to do?

Do we still not know what we're voting for, or have you now provoked a hornets nest?

Strong leave parties (Brexit + UKIP): 34%
Strong remain parties (Green + Lib Dem + ChangeUK): 25% https://t.co/h9qjTcDDPQ

— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) April 17, 2019

Indeed, if we add Con to the "Leave" category and Lab to the "Remain" category (on basis that this is preference of most of their supporters) result is Leave 49 - Remain 47

A narrow Brexit win.

Those thinking a second ref would be a rout for Remain might want to ponder that.

— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) April 17, 2019

[scottish]

Why not rejoin UKIP

[dbgtz]

the first part you posted seems to be some **** over farage disguising as fact

to the poll part, if the tweet you posted by Matthew Goodwin is correct in that its hoovered up basically all the brexiteers (bar ukip) would that not mean only 34% of voters support brexit
worth also noting that, assuming the percentage directly matches # seats, brex+ukip is the same as it was for ukip in the previous election.

also just going to point out the irony in you applauding ukip for being the "first party since 1901" etc. to win a "national election", something only enabled by PR which in turn was only because of the EU (not saying we couldnt do it, just no government ever had a reason to) - both of which you are against!



are you going to admit you were wrong or lying yet

[FlyingJesus]

Ugh polls are the worst why are we still using them as though they matter

1855 people is not the UK. It's not even one village. If I ask 10 of my mates whether they'd eat my shit for a fiver and one says yes, that doesn't mean that 6 million Brits would do so

[-:Undertaker:-]

Great cartoon in Telegraph!



Wow. Tories collapsing in polls - 23% is lowest recorded for them in a poll since 1997.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 33%(+1)
CON: 23% (-9)
BREX: 14% (+14)
CHUK: 9% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-4)
GRN: 3% (-)

via @ComRes, 16 Apr
Chgs. w/ 07 Apr

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 18, 2019

Tory councillor on Brexit rage on the doorstep: "It is fury at the whole of parliament for being incompetent self-interested shits not interested in the good of the country. It's getting worse as every week goes by."

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) April 10, 2019

From a Labour councillor in Essex: "This is by far the worst election I’ve been involved with. Lots of our activists who are usually out every night at this time of the year have had enough and won’t come out. A real slog and I’ve no idea what it means for May 2nd."

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) April 10, 2019

Essex Labour councillor about life on the doorstep at the moment: "It's vitriolic. You knock at a door and the people on the other side scream at you. Will take a generation to recover."

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) April 10, 2019

They say a typical reaction on the doorstep in Essex is "Labour are stopping Brexit. Corbyn is crap, the Tories are traitors, we are all the same. People are clear: they won't be voting."

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) April 10, 2019

the first part you posted seems to be some **** over farage disguising as fact

It's just an analysis by Sky's political reporter. *shrugs*

to the poll part, if the tweet you posted by Matthew Goodwin is correct in that its hoovered up basically all the brexiteers (bar ukip) would that not mean only 34% of voters support brexit

Labour and the Conservatives also support Brexit.

also just going to point out the irony in you applauding ukip for being the "first party since 1901" etc. to win a "national election", something only enabled by PR which in turn was only because of the EU (not saying we couldnt do it, just no government ever had a reason to) - both of which you are against!

Indeed, and I have no issue with using the EU's system against it. It's like when people said in the 1990s that eurosceptics should boycott European Elections, you don't get anywhere doing that. It's campaigning and standing in elections which got us where we are with the referendum and all that. Hundreds of eurosceptics are going to be returned to the EU Parliament this year!

are you going to admit you were wrong or lying yet

No idea what you keep going on about, I checked the thread a while back and ???

[dbgtz]

Labour and the Conservatives also support Brexit.

evidentally not much otherwise it would have happened already and the "brexit party" need not exist
you cant both paint them as stopping brexit but equally being brexit supporters

Indeed, and I have no issue with using the EU's system against it. It's like when people said in the 1990s that eurosceptics should boycott European Elections, you don't get anywhere doing that. It's campaigning and standing in elections which got us where we are with the referendum and all that. Hundreds of eurosceptics are going to be returned to the EU Parliament this year!

you say that as if electing eurosceptics annoys them
from what I can see, they tend to welcome the balance of opinion (when the eurosceptics actually turn up anyway)

No idea what you keep going on about, I checked the thread a while back and ???

https://www.habboxforum.com/showthread.php?t=843277

claiming there was an agreement to not enforce customs check for 9 months
was actually a proposal by the eu about something else and customs checks would be enforced day 1

instead of admitting you were wrong about it you just tried to flip the argument and then continue to ignore me
you will probably ignore this also because i dont think you could ever admit being wrong about anything

[-:Undertaker:-]

The Brexit Party is off to a flying start. I am shocked Ann Widdecombe, as loyal Tory (for 55 years) as you can be, has defected.

The candidates are great, the message simple, supporters energised. Contrast to the Remain Change UK party.

Ann Widdecombe quits the Tories and defects to Nigel Farage's Brexit Party https://t.co/qb4s6mKE2A pic.twitter.com/TcwjYz0oB2

— The Sun (@TheSun) April 24, 2019

WATCH | Ann Widdecombe: "Nigel Farage has been more successful than any other politician in my lifetime other than Margaret Thatcher. If in the EU elections we win overwhelmingly, that will send the shock message and Westminster will start to hear it." 👍pic.twitter.com/G8ZG3TagIZ

— Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) April 24, 2019

Page likes:
BREXIT: >73k
CUKTIG: <18k

Livestream views:
BREXIT: 52k
CUKTIG: 497

ouch...

— Tom Harwood (@tomhfh) April 23, 2019

Have now spoken to three Tory MPs who say they are going to vote for the Brexit Party at the Euros............

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) April 23, 2019

evidentally not much otherwise it would have happened already and the "brexit party" need not exist
you cant both paint them as stopping brexit but equally being brexit supporters

Not at all, if you remember the three major parties constantly promised referendums on aspects of the European issue, and were elected on manifestos to do so which they later then binned. The same is happening yet again, where people have been promised one thing and the political class fail to deliver or outright go out of their way to try and overturn a vote they do not like.

you say that as if electing eurosceptics annoys them
from what I can see, they tend to welcome the balance of opinion (when the eurosceptics actually turn up anyway)

I think the European Union fears the ballot box, absolutely.

Michel Barnier fears that Nigel Farage and his Brexit party plan to destroy the EU after winning the European Parliament electionshttps://t.co/BtcmDuqiYx

— Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) April 24, 2019

https://www.habboxforum.com/showthread.php?t=843277

claiming there was an agreement to not enforce customs check for 9 months
was actually a proposal by the eu about something else and customs checks would be enforced day 1

instead of admitting you were wrong about it you just tried to flip the argument and then continue to ignore me
you will probably ignore this also because i dont think you could ever admit being wrong about anything

I can't even remember but if there's no mini-agreement in place then okay, I was wrong.

I do know there's something similar under GATT though whereby two separating states continue trade under pre-existing conditions.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Tories plunge tonight again with another pollster.

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 32%
CON: 24%
BXP: 14%
LDM: 9%
CHUK: 5%
GRN: 5%
UKIP: 5%

Via @OnePoll*, 17 Apr.
*Not a BPC Member.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) April 24, 2019

[dbgtz]

Not at all, if you remember the three major parties constantly promised referendums on aspects of the European issue, and were elected on manifestos to do so which they later then binned. The same is happening yet again, where people have been promised one thing and the political class fail to deliver or outright go out of their way to try and overturn a vote they do not like.

which is exactly proving my point in that they don't actually support it (as a whole)

I think the European Union fears the ballot box, absolutely.

Michel Barnier fears that Nigel Farage and his Brexit party plan to destroy the EU after winning the European Parliament electionshttps://t.co/BtcmDuqiYx

— Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) April 24, 2019

But equally, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...talian-voters/

I can't even remember but if there's no mini-agreement in place then okay, I was wrong.

I do know there's something similar under GATT though whereby two separating states continue trade under pre-existing conditions.

which, if true, there has to be agreement to - it's not an automatically qualifying right and tariffs will go up on day 1 in the event of no deal
https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

it doesn't take make of a google to see all the **** surrounding the claim