British General Election, 2019

[scottish]

Indyref was always going to be a mess anyway with the euro as only the UK was given the exclusion and not Scotland, didn't that all come out in the first referendum too? (I didn't pay that much attention then so I can't remember exactly what was said)

Yes it would need to go through whatever stages and is probably unlikely to happen by 2020 but just quoting Sturgeons wishes here. I'm very much against Scottish independence so do hope it never happens but can't help but think the boost in SNP seats will boost her ego and want to push more for indyref2, even if it never does happen.

So does this mean 4 years of Boris :|

[-:Undertaker:-]

@scottish;

Next General Election currently scheduled for May 2024 - unless the FTPA is repealed, which would return the power to the PM.

Wrexham, Burnley, Scunthorpe, Redcar... all turning blue. Most been Labour for 80+ years. Incredible.

Tories have taken Bishop Auckland, Ipswich, and Burnley - map is changing in front of our eyes

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 13, 2019

Obviously got to wait to analyse all the results. But if things continue like this it’s starting to look like returning to power is going to be a ten year project for Labour. At a minimum.

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) December 13, 2019

Basically if you’re a Labour MP not in a city and you have a majority of less than 10000 it’s probably curtains.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) December 13, 2019

Jane Green says that the Tories may well be outperforming the exit poll, pointing to the Leigh result

— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) December 13, 2019

Labour def being hammered more in Leave areas, but they are down in Remain areas so far too - our numbers suggest on average down by 12 points in the most pro Leave constituencies whereas it is down by only 5 points in the most pro Remain ones.

— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 13, 2019

[-:Undertaker:-]

Corbyn announces intention to resign.




In other news Sedgefield, the former constituency of Tony Blair, has turned blue. It was last Conservative in 1935!

Don Valley, Great Grimsby..... both flipped from red to blue. Huge swings in formerly solid Labour seats.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Jo Swinson is narrowly defeated by the SNP in East Dunbartonshire.

Expect she will now resign as Liberal Democrats leader.

[buttons]

My hometown voted Tory for the second time which is v interesting. They're usually SNP (considering it was Alex Salmond's seat until 2010)

https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/cou...election-2019/

[dbgtz]

absolute sham that boris is still pm given his shite and in some instances illegal performance over the last 20 years

curious to see what his position is over the next few months though I have to say.
some speculate he might go for a softer brexit since he has such a massive majority he doesnt have to care much about the erg
on the flip side, if he goes for something hard it would be interesting to see if theres another rebellion

@scottish;

Brexit, once it actually happens within weeks now, makes independence a lot more complicated and a lot less attractive.

It means, for Scotland, "independence" becomes adoption of the Euro, full integration, tariffs with the UK.

the former is not strictly true in that list just to point out, but it would be hard to justify not adopting it if they intend to shift from the pound
also the last one on the list you cant actually confirm given theres no terms of any deal yet

As far as I'm aware, SNP need WestMinister to agree to a referendum as it's a constitutional matter. There's a complicated process to go through to do this, hence it was supposed to be a once in a lifetime opportunity that she was given. She can't just hold one every few years until she gets the result she wants and I highly doubt she would get a bill passed as quickly as 2020.

to be fair, they keep getting elected on the platform of independence and arguably one of the key reasons people in scotland voted to say was because of the eu (I have no source for this, pure conjecture) so you could say the push for another one is justified

[-:Undertaker:-]

Last night, one of the Labour MPs with her head screwed on - and who respected that her constituents voted Leave - lost her seat. Caroline Flint lost Don Valley, a Labour seat since 1922. Her speech is worth listening to as the party now works out how to recover from its worst result since 1935.

Labour cannot simply be a party of big cities and university towns. Nor just a party of the young. Or a party of devoted Remainers. We must be a party of labour. A party close to working class people. People we haven’t listened to or respected enough. https://t.co/2gZtTCyd6A

— Caroline Flint (@CarolineFlint) December 13, 2019

My hometown voted Tory for the second time which is v interesting. They're usually SNP (considering it was Alex Salmond's seat until 2010)

https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/cou...election-2019/

I think at the moment, the SNP have such a domination over Scottish politics because they have a united vote. The Unionist vote is still fragmented between the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Eventually, this will change as an alternative to the SNP at Holyrood and Westminster is sought. I'd like to see voting up there return to the actual practicalities of governing (and I think it will) like schools, which the SNP have failed so badly on.

Quebec in Canada experienced all of this back in the 1980s and 1990s, and after two referendum defeats nationalism in Quebec has drastically receded and Quebec has mainly re-integated back into Canadian politics. Hopefully Britain's withdrawal from the EU will be another step in returning Scottish politics back into the mainstream British fold.

absolute sham that boris is still pm given his shite and in some instances illegal performance over the last 20 years

curious to see what his position is over the next few months though I have to say.
some speculate he might go for a softer brexit since he has such a massive majority he doesnt have to care much about the erg
on the flip side, if he goes for something hard it would be interesting to see if theres another rebellion

The government will go for a Canada-style FTA. He has the numbers, and Downing Street now has Dominic Cummings as well as half the Cabinet as ardent Leavers. There's no more staunch Remainers like Sir David Lidlingtons and Gavin Barwells in Number 10. One thing people are overlooking is how the Conservative and Unionist Party has now become completely eurosceptic - I cannot name a single incumbent Tory MP who even advocates the EEA/EFTA now. That's a massive sea change.

Soubry, Grieve, Letwin, Clarke, Sandbach, Wollaston, Allen, Boles and countless others are history. Farage has won.

the former is not strictly true in that list just to point out, but it would be hard to justify not adopting it if they intend to shift from the pound
also the last one on the list you cant actually confirm given theres no terms of any deal yet

The opt outs that exist for Britain, Denmark(?) and Sweden(?) on the Euro exist because they are existing members and were able to bargain opt outs before signing the newer treaties. A member state applying to join the European Union has no legal choice: other than not joining the EU.

Britain is leaving the EU's Customs Union, meaning an independent Scotland would be in a different customs territory. All of the arguments the SNP made about leaving the EU, can be applied to Scotland leaving the UK - but tenfold. They won't have a leg to stand on post- Brexit and they know it.

to be fair, they keep getting elected on the platform of independence and arguably one of the key reasons people in scotland voted to say was because of the eu (I have no source for this, pure conjecture) so you could say the push for another one is justified

The SNP and Nicola Sturgeon would argue for a third, fourth and fifth referendum if the weather changed.

There's also been no significant shift towards independence generally in the polls.

[buttons]

to be fair, they keep getting elected on the platform of independence and arguably one of the key reasons people in scotland voted to say was because of the eu (I have no source for this, pure conjecture) so you could say the push for another one is justified

2019 UK Election: 68.1% of Scottish voters voted. 45% of those were for SNP meaning 55% for different parties.
2016 Scottish Election: 55.6% voter turnout. 46.5% voted for SNP and 0.6% voted pro-independence Greens. 52.9% voted for parties against independence.
2014 Referendum: 55% voted against independence with 45% voting for. 84.6% turnout.

My opinion there then is that a vote for SNP is not necessarily a vote for independence. Whilst they get elected into parliament, voter turn out is relatively low and doesn't paint as big a picture as 55% voting against independence in a 84.6% turnout. What I find hilarious is the amount of SNP voters quoting Margaret Thatcher's "a vote for SNP is a vote for independence" to argue for a referendum when they were all joking and laughing when she died. They also aren't taking into consideration the amount of no voters and turnout rates for the elections SNP has been elected into. SNP votes this election could arguably just be votes against either Labour or Conservative and we shouldn't assume it's a growing trend for independence. I can say 100% the attitude and actions of Sturgeon after the referendum and during this election has turned me completely against Scottish Independence and my vote this time round will be different to last time round. Obviously not just because of Sturgeon but the whole way Brexit has been dealt with by different parties and their leaders turns me right off the idea of separation but I understand how it has also led to more pro-independence. I just think there's so much hypocrisy for people to be anti-brexit but Ok for the Scots to be pro-separation just because England didn't get the vote they wanted. It feels like egos more than politics at this point.


It would be interesting to see if voter intention has changed and why. But I don't think Sturgeon and SNP voters should get cocky too quickly.

I think at the moment, the SNP have such a domination over Scottish politics because they have a united vote. The Unionist vote is still fragmented between the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Eventually, this will change as an alternative to the SNP at Holyrood and Westminster is sought. I'd like to see voting up there return to the actual practicalities of governing (and I think it will) like schools, which the SNP have failed so badly on.

In Banff & Buchan I think the problem is the SNP candidates believe they will get votes based solely on being SNP. The conservative member there is actually really pro-active and liked so that explains why they vote him. Of course there are still plenty SNP voters who are annoyed a tory is in despite him actually improving their area compared to the SNP candidate lol.

Britain is leaving the EU's Customs Union, meaning an independent Scotland would be in a different customs territory. All of the arguments the SNP made about leaving the EU, can be applied to Scotland leaving the UK - but tenfold. They won't have a leg to stand on post- Brexit and they know it.

This is what I feel exactly. It feels to me like SNP want the EU to take over the job of WestMinister in terms of allowing us to keep our free education and free prescriptions etc at the expense of another country or in this case countries. Working in the job I do (based in an NHS hospital but with a housing and homelessness background) and seeing how much better we have it than the rest of the UK, I feel like we're completely shooting ourselves in the foot by breaking away from that.

[-:Undertaker:-]

This is what I feel exactly. It feels to me like SNP want the EU to take over the job of WestMinister

Indeed, and the logic doesn't add up.

Scotland as a part of Britain has devolution and those powers have been expanded. Scotland as part of the EU would mean signing up to "ever closer union" which would mean a continual transfer of powers from Edinburgh to Brussels. "Ever closer union" is the polar opposite of independence.

The Acts of Union (1707) also retained Scotland's own legal system. EU membership means increasing civil law taking precedence over Scots Law.

[Inseriousity.]

What a stunning victory for the Conservatives. For over 3 years, we've just repeated the Brexit referendum debate (in or out?) over and over with nothing new being added. Finally glad we'll be able to get that part sorted and move onto what the next debate should have been on 24 June 2016 - what sort of Brexit do we want? Read somewhere that People's Vote are rebranding themselves to do precisely that and most likely push for the softest Brexit possible.

As for Scottish independence, I don't think there'll be another referendum any time soon for the simple reason that Boris can simply say 'no, you've had one, it was a once in a generation vote, goodbye.' Naturally, the SNP leadership will huff and they'll puff but they won't be able to do much else legally. Personally, I got the impression that this was precisely what they were hoping for. They knew that they'd gain seats (not necessarily people voting for independence. I agree it was most likely an anti-Tory vote) so they could argue they had the mandate but they also knew that Boris would say no. Privately they're thrilled because they're unlikely to win a second referendum any time soon and they can use this rejection to further boost their cause and say how Westminster is blocking their democratic right. Fits perfectly into the narrative they need to sell to the Scots to get them to vote for independence if a second one does ever happen.